Erdogan’s political targeting and the crisis scenarios he prefers

By Antonis Anzoletou

Tayyip Erdoğan has “laid the table again” and is scoping out where he can get the most geopolitical benefits.

It is no secret that in Libya he has invested a lot of diplomatic capital, he has put money, but also human resources. Several interpretations can be given for the activation of the memorandum with the African country.

Perhaps he feels safer in relation to the West. That is, that he will have the least pressures in contrast to the other delinquent initiatives he has taken recently.

And at the same time, as in 2019, he is trying to take advantage of the fact that he is facing the weak government of Tripoli. THE Turkish president he obviously saw that with another power in Libya, not friendly to him, the whole narrative he has built for three years will collapse.

The unstable environment that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created in Europe cannot be left out of the equation. With the asterisk, since Turkey has chosen to tread in two boats, it risks losing a significant part of its negotiating power, especially vis-à-vis the USA.

Maybe he doesn’t see it right now, but maybe it’s a strategic choice.

Erdogan appears willing to normalize relations with all of his neighbors except Greece and Cyprus. It is characteristic that he has forgotten the Palestinians and the anti-Semitism that possessed him, while he is also making moves towards Armenia.

Safe analyzes of whether the escalation Erdogan seeks have found fertile ground in Libya cannot be made based on the unpredictability of his character.

The narrative that “Turkey is under threat” remains on the table and is supported in their own way by all the incendiary statements of government officials, as well as the nationalist partner Devlut Bakhceli. For this reason, after all, the issue was brought up in the recent National Security Council of the country. The ground is possibly being prepared for an appeal to the UN Security Council.

Hulusi Akar’s message yesterday was not just another statement. The tone he used as well as the instructions to the Turkish navy and air force constitute a threat of war.

Erdogan indulges in an incendiary crescendo for the first time in such a long time. Beyond impressions, what could be gained from this rhetoric if it eventually develops into something more serious in the field? Does Erdogan’s political goal involve a partial demilitarization of the islands?

Or is he looking forward to a positive development in relation to the EEZ and the continental shelf?

Ideally, for the Turkish president, a controlled-scale crisis that would give him the right to question Greek sovereign rights would be the scenario that would suit him the most. Unless the big problem of Ankara is the port of Alexandroupoli and stop the investments launched there.

All the plans run counter to International Law, which is on Greece’s side. The EU drew a dividing line with Turkey, as well as the allies who constantly disapprove of Turkish moves with their statements. The military reinforcement of the Greek armed forces is a given, while the defense assistance clause signed with France is a basic shield.

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