Elections 2023: ND – SYRIZA strategies and non-parliamentary parties – What the previous polls show about self-reliance

By Antonis Anzoletou

The bar of self-reliance with simple analog is elusive. It exceeds 46% and only in the periods of the 80s, 90s and 2000s were these percentages within the realm of possibilities of the major parties. The last major electoral result was achieved by George Papandreou in 2009, when PASOK reached 44%. Today even the 38% required for the first party to obtain in the second ballots (enhanced proportional) to secure the 151 seats is not an easy goal. And it applies in the event that the percentage of the unrepresented vote is around 8%.

The increase in the percentage of parties that will eventually be left out of Parliament reduces the margin of self-reliance for the first party. The “pollsters” in both Piraeus and Koumoundourou are already looking back at past election contests to see where the percentage of formations that had not managed to overcome the 3% limit fluctuated.

Going back ten years, it is clear that the elections of May 2012 are not indicative. The political system had disappointed the voters, resulting in a fragmentation of the vote as a sign of protest against the major parties. It was the polls that brought PASOK to 3rd place with 13.18%, while the first two ND (18.85%) and SYRIZA (16.78%) reached only 35.63%. That Sunday, non-parliamentary parties reached a historic 19.02%. In the elections that followed 41 days later the unrepresented vote was reduced to 5.98%. Polarization and mobilization greatly limited the reactionary vote.

In the January 2015 elections, when SYRIZA came to power for the first time, those outside Parliament formations reached 8.62% and nine months later they were further reduced to 6.4%. A key guide is the last election, as in July 2019 “other forces” were recorded at 8.07%. Epimythio: under normal political conditions the smaller parties that do not manage to get the “ticket” for the inauguration of the new parliamentary term range from 6%-8%.

Government and official opposition continue to chart their own strategy. Self-reliance is promoted by the New Democracy, arguing that it is an achievable goal in the second ballots. The required “staircase” is the simple analog. And they exorcise the loose vote, as they want to show with the percentage they will get that in the second elections the majority of 151 is an achievable goal.

Completely different is the strategy of SYRIZA, where progressive governance and victory with at least one vote difference on the first Sunday is the main issue. In Koumoundourou, they believe that if they cut the thread first, it will be extremely difficult for PASOK to refuse to participate in a cooperative programmatic scheme because of the pressure it will receive in the enhanced proportional ballots. Despite the front that has opened this week.

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