The extent to which the shock of the enclave can make Turkey move from a series of anti-Western positions and withdraw its aggressive rhetoric against Greece is at the center of international analyses, while the question remains when Erdogan will finally decide to hold polls .

The assessments he made speaking exclusively to and the Nicoleta Kritikou The CNBC Political Analyst Michael Harris:

The earthquake has caused intense turmoil in Turkey over whether elections should be held in May, sparking a standoff between the government and the opposition. Will Erdogan attempt to postpone them given that 6 of the 10 affected provinces are AKP strongholds?

Michael Harris
Political Analyst CNBC – Cribstone Strategic Macro

I think it would be weird if he didn’t. There was fear even before the earthquake and it was very clear that he would lose the election. There was a lot of talk about how he could avoid them because it’s not just about the timing of the elections. It has to do with their outcome. And (the earthquake) clearly didn’t help the situation.

I find it has almost 0% chance of winning democratically. His popularity was so low that he could not win the election even before the earthquake. With so much loss of life and the collapse of buildings that shouldn’t have collapsed, it’s hard not to be blamed when you’ve been in power for 20 years. I am absolutely convinced that he has no chance of winning this election.

The only hope is a long delay in their implementation to avoid protests.

In the wake of the earthquakes, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu spoke of a new page in Athens-Ankara relations. Will the earthquake diplomacy bear fruit this time?

Michael Harris
Political Analyst CNBC – Cribstone Strategic Macro

I was very worried about how this geopolitical confrontation would play out, because it was clear that Erdogan was going to lose this election. He could not win by democratic means. So I thought there was a 50% chance of a war breaking out with Greece. Now it has zeros. Geopolitical tension is no longer an option for Erdogan, provided the elections are held within a time frame that does not exhaust his “good intentions”. It does not mean that solutions will be found. He himself is not interested in solutions. The bigger question is whether he will delay the election long enough to rekindle the rhetoric of a geopolitical conflict to be part of his campaign toolbox again.

During his visit to Athens, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken called on Greece and Turkey to resolve their differences and avoid unilateral actions that could increase tension.

Is this a window of opportunity for the two countries?

Michael Harris
Political Analyst CNBC – Cribstone Strategic Macro

I’d say it’s a window to release the tension. The most positive thing, of course, would be to hold elections and have a change of government. But if Erdogan stays in power, then there will be a window of opportunity under the assumption that he stays in power having won legitimately. If he has not won legitimately, the geopolitical risks will become serious again. And Erdogan needs to have these geopolitical tensions with Greece in his quiver. So I don’t see it as a window of opportunity, but as a temporary relief. The situation has decompressed a little but the tension is still here.

The outcome and behavior of Turkey in an environment where Erdogan abandons the democratic safety net will be problematic for the West and Greece in particular.