By Antonis Anzoletou

The only certainty for the polls that open in 19 days from today is that neither New Democracy nor SYRIZA will manage to exceed the 46% required by simple proportionality (if the non-parliamentary parties collect 8%) in order to ensure independence.

The potential of the formations has been captured through the polls and anything different would be a huge surprise.

The handling of investigative orders is not a simple task that the top three can afford to leave to the last minute. Of course, hypothetical scenarios don’t help much either.

Everything will depend not only on the winner, but on the scope of the difference and on the percentage that the third party, that is PASOK, will gather.

For New Democracy, a “score” of more than 34%, which would “unlock the door” of an absolute majority of 151 MPs for the next election, would lead Kyriakos Mitsotakis to immediately return the exploratory mandate. Since his strategic goal is self-reliance he would have no reason to run the three-day process. His opponents, after all, would accuse him of inconsistency.

The prime minister is very careful when talking about this issue since the number achieved by the ruling faction on the evening of May 21 will be the guide on how to move.

In the event that his percentage is lower, it is not excluded, even if the “pots” do not come out, that he makes contact with Nikos Androulakis.

Enhanced analog will be just around the corner and everything will have to be “weighed”.

In this way, it will be as if he is responding to SYRIZA who constantly accuses him that his goal is to lead the country in successive electoral contests until self-reliance is achieved.

In any case, Alexis Tsipras will take advantage of the mandate he will receive from Katerina Sakellaropoulou.

If SYRIZA refutes the polls and emerges as the first force, then it will request an appointment with Nikos Androulakis in order to explore the possibilities of forming a government.

And if this is not possible based on the numbers, as he has said, he will address the KKE and MeRA25 asking for their tolerance during the process of the vote of confidence in the Parliament.

The official opposition leader has declared many times that if his party cuts the thread first, progressive governance will be a fact.

Today he will present in Lavrio the minimum government proposal of 11 points that he has drawn up. He has also made it clear that the “government of the losers” is a scenario that does not concern him.

This does not mean that he will leave unused the three days given to him by the Constitution.

The next electoral contest will be difficult, so a round of contacts with the political leaders would be useful in order to gauge the moods that exist.

Nikos Androulakis has declared that he does not accept either Mr. Mitsotakis or Mr. Tsipras as prime minister. Where can this attitude lead?

PASOK keeps its “papers closed” regarding the investigative orders. His chairman has set his sights on a good double-digit percentage to be the regulator of the next day.

It will not be a surprise if he does not respond, or responds only nominally to the call of the first two, once he himself receives the third command.

With such a move, it would show that it does not want to have the role of “comparison” or “observer” of developments, as had happened with other smaller parties that participated in the past as partners in governments.

He will discuss the programmatic agreement for his participation in a majority with the winner and the “bargain”, depending on the percentage he will have received, is expected to be tough for the person who will lead the government.

It will be interesting if Mr. Androulakis says “yes” to an appointment with the runner-up in the elections. However, he has ruled out his participation in a government with Yanis Varoufakis.