By Antonis Anzoletou

Ten days before the polls open, the party staffs are in a fever of meetings. From the data of the polls, they focus mainly on the “pitta” of the undecided, since, in addition to increasing the gathering, it is the main point in which they have room for intervention. According to the exit polls of 2019, a percentage, reaching 10%, claims that they decide on the last weekend what to vote for. What does this mean; Of the approximately six million citizens who go to the polls, 500,000 choose the ballot they will cross at the last minute.

In the news Pulse poll, carried out on behalf of the SKAI central news bulletin, major differences compared to 15 days before were not recorded. In the intention to vote by recall on the valid ones, New Democracy (32.5%) and SYRIZA (26%) increased their strength by half a unit. For the ruling faction, it may be another “correction” after the Tempe accident, in addition to the rallying that is also taking place in the official opposition. PASOK already seems to be under pressure from the “war” that the two “big men” have started against it and shows a small drop of 0.5%, falling to 9%. Hellenic Solution loses one unit, falling to the psychological limit of 3%, while MeRA25 also falls to 4%.

The interesting thing about the new Pulse measurement is that undecideds increased by one point to 12%. And the “gray zone” as a whole was measured at 15.5% with its de-escalation being a bit slower than usual and this shows a concern in the world. This is why the “battle” is still open in this field and each “player” is trying to reach the special audience that is still looking for “political shelter”. Although the decision of the Supreme Court to exclude the Kasidiaris party “shuffles the deck” from the poll data, it does not appear that any other formation is gaining the required ground to get the ticket for the Parliament. And it is considered difficult for the parties that are now moving in the zone of 1% to make any “jump” of two points in the remaining nine days.

The political leaders’ upcoming tour “stops” are their last chance to reach new voters through the presentation of their programs. Co-government, no matter the sacrifice, 19% of the respondents want, with the majority answering that either “an effort must be made for a government of cooperation and if it doesn’t work… new elections” (38%), while “new polls as soon as possible” want 34 %. The last percentage is almost identical to the dynamics presented by New Democracy in the measurements.

The governance and seat scenarios are hotly debated in party offices. In Pulse’s special question “which option are you closest to”, which was asked of those who declared their intention to vote undecided, 11% answered that they were moving towards New Democracy and the same percentage towards SYRIZA. They are followed by: 6% PASOK, 4% KKE, 3% Hellenic Solution, 3% MeRA25. Pulse again proceeded with two election result assessment scenarios. With a proportional distribution of the so-called “gray zone”, which hypothetically includes a six-party Parliament and 8.5% “outside” the parliamentary seats, New Democracy reaches a percentage of 36.5% (120 seats) which is the first step for achieving self-reliance in the second ballot. SYRIZA collects 29.5% (97 seats), PASOK 10.5% (34 seats), KKE 7% (23 seats), Hellenic Solution 3.5% (11 seats), MERA25 4.5% (15 seats) . What does this mean; How only the cooperation of Piraeus with Charilaou Trikoupi could give a majority of 154 seats. With such a percentage, however, Kyriakos Mitsotakis will have “unlocked the door” to self-reliance in the second ballots and is not expected to enter into any discussion about cooperation. Especially after the attack launched by Kyriakos Mitsotakis on Nikos Androulakis. It is clear that New Democracy and SYRIZA have recently claimed an additional piece of the center space. SYRIZA – PASOK – MeRA25 gather 146 MPs confirming that mathematically the “government of the defeated” is a very special condition that could hardly proceed.

In the second scenario, which includes the distribution of undecideds based on the special question above (about more likely to vote), the picture changes, but not dramatically. With 11% outside Parliament and with six parties getting the “ticket”, New Democracy gathers 35% (118 seats) and SYRIZA 28.5% (96 seats). They are followed by PASOK 10.5% (35 seats), KKE 7% (24 seats), Hellenic Solution 3.5% (12 seats), MeRA25 4.5% (15 seats). In any case, the strengthening of the two “big ones”, which is recorded, is a common electoral image when the polls are approaching.