By Antonis Anzoletou

The big difference that New Democracy secured from SYRIZA in the May 21 elections allows for a more secure analysis of some changes that will occur in the enhanced proportional ballots. The new composition of the national delegation is expected to be quite different even if there are no significant changes in the result. The bonus – which will rise to 50 seats if the blue faction exceeds 40% – will not allow several opposition MPs to be sworn in for a second consecutive term.

With the percentage of 40.79% taken by New Democracy (146 seats), in conditions of enhanced proportionality, an additional 25 MPs would get the ticket for the Parliament, reaching 171. All of them would come from the formations that passed 3% in the previous elections. SYRIZA with the same percentage (20.07%) out of 71 would fall to 60 seats and the course of the other parties will be correspondingly downward. The PASOK (11.45%) will lose seven seats and will be represented in the Parliament by 34 MPs, the KKE (7.23%) by 22 and the Hellenic Solution (4.45%) by 13. It goes without saying that if one or two parties – as the latest measurements show – if they manage to pass the 3% threshold and enter the Parliament, the first party will be entitled to fewer seats.

The opposition MPs, who are “at risk” of being excluded from the next one Plenary, but also the runners-up of all parties are an important “weapon”. In essence, they will run a new election campaign in their districts in order to increase their party’s votes and get re-sworn. It is very likely, always based on the results of the previous ballot, in the Western sector of Athens that New Democracy will win another seat from SYRIZA. In the 2nd Piraeus, it is not excluded that the blue party will elect two more MPs from SYRIZA and PASOK. From the large regions in A’ and B’ Thessaloniki there is also a case for the blue faction to “steal” a seat from the current official opposition if the image of May 21st does not change much. The same will happen, according to experienced ecologists, in Larissa, Ioannina, Kavala, Pieria and the Cyclades. Clearly, it is most likely that other changes are recorded, given that the next result will not be exactly the same.

One thing is certain: for the next 23 days, many MPs will be in “hot coals”, as they cannot know their political future.