The improvement of the political climate between Greece and Turkey it can only be described as “radical”.. Ahead of Thursday’s summit, hardly a day goes by without statements from top politicians on both sides emphasizing the new quality of relationships. While not long ago mutual accusations, even open hostility, dominated the rhetoric; now we are witnessing a peaceful climate, to which public opinion has yet to get used. It is important that we are not just experiencing a new political jargon. More important politically is the new calm in the airspace of the Aegeanwhich is tangible evidence that Ankara has adjusted its strategy.

Auspicious omens, but you never know with Erdogan

Therefore, the conditions exist for a successful summit meeting in Athens. Experts await with interest the details of the bilateral agreements that the ministers of the two countries intend to sign in common pursuit of a common goal: the promotion of relations between neighboring countries. However, it causes a feeling that the Greek government it gives the impression in advance that her expectations are low. This it may also be due to the fact that the visitor from Ankara has proven several times that he is unpredictable, which means that unpleasant surprises with Tayyip Erdogan cannot be ruled out. This is another reason why the recent visit of the Turkish president to Berlin attracted special interest in Greece. Erdogan’s statements about Israel and Hamas, unacceptable to many in the West, especially in Germany, dominated the media headlines. In essence, however, the German chancellor and the Turkish president – behind closed doors – they reached politically important agreements on issues such as the religious education of the Turkish community and the immigration issue, which is becoming an increasingly mainstream issue.

The lesson for Athens from Erdogan’s talks with Soltz is that many indicate that the Turkish leader is currently interested in improving relations with the West. It is a great success of Greek foreign policy that the calm on the Greek-Turkish relations front is the price that Ankara must pay in order to make progress in its relations with Europe. This politically important connection between Turkish relations with the EU and Greek-Turkish relations was highlighted by the European Commission only recently in its report on relations with Turkey. “The unequivocal commitment to good neighborly relations, international agreements and the principle of peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with the United Nations Charter, as well as the renunciation of unilateral measures that go against the interests of the EU and violate international law and the sovereign rights of EU member states, remains a key condition for ensuring mutually beneficial relationships between the EU and Turkey”the Commission writes in its report, which will be discussed by the heads of government in the middle of the month.

Erdogan sees Greece as a representative of the EU

A clearer position of the EU in favor of Greece’s positions can hardly be imagined. This attitude of Brussels is a thorn for Ankara. He explains because Erdogan has repeatedly demanded the Greek-Turkish issues be resolved bilaterally and without the intervention of third parties. But Erdogan is of course well aware of that she is a rather unrealistic position. Many of the issues that the Turkish president will negotiate with Mitsotakis have implications that they extend beyond the borders of the two countries. This applies, for example, to for immigration, which will be a key issue in Athens. “We will discuss both our bilateral relations as well as Turkey’s relations with the EU” with the Greek prime minister, Erdogan said on his return flight from the United Arab Emirates these days. This is a remarkable admission that Erdogan considers the Greek prime minister as a representative of the entire EU. This statement, which received little public attention, is yet another proof of Greece’s political upgrade.

Western governments welcome the Greek-Turkish approach without exception. Berlin expressed particular satisfaction: “We see this with particular enthusiasm,” noted the German ambassador in Athens. A year ago, Berlin, through targeted diplomatic mediation, brought Greece and Turkey back to the negotiating table after a period of high tension. The stabilization of the situation in the eastern Mediterranean is a key objective of German foreign policy. And Greek-Turkish relations play a decisive role in this. For a long time, the conditions for substantial progress in these relations were not as favorable as they are today. This is a sign of hope in a region that threatens to descend into chaos.

* Dr. Ronald Maynardous is a political analyst and commentator and Principal Researcher of ELIAMEP