61 million Turkish voters will go to the polls tomorrow to elect their mayors, with the “jewel in the crown” being none other than Istanbul, where the Turkish president-elect, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Murat Kurumconfronts the powerful – as the polls show – Ekrem Imamoglou.

According to the latest poll by the company Sonar, which has to its credit the successful prediction of the outcome of the 2023 elections, Imamoglu goes to the polls on Sunday with a fairly safe lead.

He gathered 47.3% compared to 40.4% for Murat Kurum, who had been Erdogan’s former environment minister without being a particularly prominent political figure.

Besides, a poll, a few days ago, by the company Metropoll also predicted a comfortable lead for Imamoglou with a difference of 10 points.

The president of the company, Ozer Sedar, commented that “we had started our first investigation last December when the two candidacies of Ekrem Imamoglu and Murat Kouroum had become known. Then we found a difference of 15 points in favor of Imamoglu. In January, the difference between the two mayoral candidates decreased to 4 points. In the research we started on March 1, we found that the difference in favor of Imamoglu is growing again and from 3-4 points it increased to 9 points and with the reduction we reach a 10 point difference”.

“The defeat will not damage the image of the leader”

In fact, international media commented that a possible defeat of Kurum would not tarnish the image of the head of state, who began his journey to the absolute domination of Turkey’s political scene by the Municipality of Istanbul in the 1990s (1994-1998). .

Apart from Istanbul, Ankara is also expected to remain in the hands of the social democratic Republican People’s Party (CHP), the main opposition formation that won the two cities five years ago.

Izmir, the country’s third city and a stronghold of the CHP, appears to remain beyond the reach of Ertoğan’s AKP party.

The ruling party may retreat in major Anatolian cities in favor of an ultra-conservative formation (Geninden Refah), predict analysts, who pointed to lower attendance at rallies held in the presence of the head of state – possibly due to the Ramadan fast.

Analysts, however, comment that an eventual ascendancy of Imamoglu in Istanbul, which represents 18% of Turkey’s population and a third of its economy, could offer him a stepping stone to power.

The “last election” for Erdogan?

In power since 2003, first as prime minister and then as president since 2014, Erdogan announced in early March that these municipal elections would be the “last elections” held under his rule, as the current constitution does not allow him to contest new term, unless early elections are held.

Observers are speculating about these remarks by the president, who celebrated his 70th birthday at the end of February: a sincere farewell or a maneuver aimed at persuading Turks to give his party one last blank check?