Michel Barnier is still looking for his cabinet ministers, but the new head of the French government has already announced what will change in France.

The 73-year-old’s first priority is illegal immigration. “One has the impression that the borders are like a sieve – and that the migration flows are out of control. This is exactly what we want to change,” Barnier said last week.

To implement a stricter immigration and asylum policy, Barnier is reportedly even planning the establishment of a ministry for “immigration, integration and national identity”. Such a move would show that the Republican leader Barnier is heading in a direction similar to that set by Nicolas Sarkozy.

Sarkozy, who made headlines outside France when he declared that he would “cleanse” the suburbs of “vagrants”, had created such a ministry as president in 2007, as part of a general tightening of French immigration policy – with Sarkozy succeeds in limiting the rise of the far-right National Front (FN).

Addicted to Le Pen

Today the National Rally party (RN), as the faction has been renamed, is making President Macron’s life significantly more difficult. In the European elections, Marine Le Pen’s RN emerged as the strongest force in the country, garnering 31.4% of the vote, while it was also strengthened in the summer parliamentary elections. Macron’s alliance, on the other hand, is weakening more and more. “Michel Barnier needs the RN’s votes in parliament if he wants his government to survive,” said Jacob Ross, an expert on France at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

In contrast to the Left, Le Pen does not seem “burnt” to oppose Barnier – and this also has to do with the tightening of immigration and asylum policy. “In the past Barnier has repeatedly indicated that he sees Brexit as a response to the loss of control over national policy issues. He himself fears that if something does not fundamentally change in immigration policy in Europe, the entire European edifice will be called into question,” explains Ross.

Election campaign on immigration

To prevent such a development, Barnier is in favor of a tightening of immigration policy – ​​without however detailing the measures he is going to take. However, if one examines Barnier’s positions during his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination three years ago, one can form an idea of ​​what is to come.

At the time, the former secretary of state pushed to speed up asylum procedures, called for restrictions on immigrant family reunification and proposed a moratorium on accepting asylum seekers in the country that could last for years.

Even revising the Constitution does not appear to be taboo for Barnier to ensure that national law prevails over EU law in cases of doubt. The aim of the measures proposed in the past by the French politician was to regain national sovereignty in immigration policy and to promote the integration of immigrants. Barnier, however, failed to emerge as a candidate for the presidency.

The votes the RN will need in parliament for measures to tighten immigration policy are seen as a given. Of course, this does not negate the fact that Barnier and Le Pen are two completely different… political universes. Barnier is considered a man of the center, who does not question the plan for European integration and the EU institutions.

Important test for Macron’s party

Moreover, in the National Assembly Barnier can only rely on the less than 50 deputies of his party and the presidential alliance. The two camps had agreed as early as 2023 to tighten immigration policy – a fact that caused tremors in Macron’s camp. Last year’s reform provided, among other things, that some migrants from non-EU countries would have to wait even years before they could access social benefits.

However, many austerity measures were rejected by the Constitutional Council. And this not only because the court found violations of the Constitution in all cases, but also because it judged that there were often errors in the process.

In the coming months, Michel Barnier’s negotiating skills may also be in demand at EU level. As the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Barnier knows the ins and outs of Brussels very well.

Barnier, who probably has no interest in undermining EU law, is likely to go along with the political dynamics seen in Germany. Shortly after Barnier took over as French prime minister, German Interior Minister Nancy Fesser announced border controls and “refusals of migrants in accordance with European principles” at the German border. With the looming change of course on immigration, France’s most important partner in the EU could become an important ally for the tightening of immigration policy in Europe.

The relevant debate has of course progressed much further in France than in Germany. Last year’s immigration reform against populist protests goes far beyond what the majority in Germany seems likely to support.

Migrant rejections at the border have long made headlines in France. In 2017 French security forces stopped more than 50,000 people at the Franco-Italian border alone – and checks were not only carried out on roads and trains, but even with patrols in the mountains.

Edited by: Giorgos Passas