The majority of Germans favor their immediate implementation. Response from Berlin

The political situation in Germany changes by the hour. After intense pressure from the Christian Democrats and other opposition parties, Chancellor Olaf Sols said from the EU summit in Budapest that he was open to negotiations on the date of early elections, reversing his original line on a vote of confidence in January 15 and elections in mid-March. “We should discuss the election date as calmly as possible,” he said from Budapest.

According to a new poll (ARD Deutschlandtrend) two-thirds of Germans want early elections immediately. 65% are in favor of snap elections now and 33% back the chancellor’s original proposal for a confidence vote in January.

59% of German respondents consider the end of the coalition government good now, and 40% consider it responsible for the dissolution of the Liberal coalition. First in voting intention is the Christian Union with 34%, second is the far-right AfD Alternative for Germany 18%, followed by the Social Democrats with 16%, the Greens with 12%, the Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance with 6%, the Liberals with 5% while the Left is not included in the polling register.

Bra de fer in parliament

In the German parliament, the hard political game of alliances and possible future forms of cooperation has meanwhile shifted, with all parties except the Greens pressing Scholz for early elections immediately rather than in March.

The far-right Alternative for Germany, which brought to the Plenary’s agenda an extraordinary debate on the government crisis and the way out of it, also shot its arrows at Friedrich Merz, saying that even he, as chancellor candidate, would not have a majority in parliament in the event that he was asking for her trust.

In fact, even in the case of a victory for the two parties of the Christian Union, they would still not be able to gather an absolute majority in the parliament and would have to cooperate: probably with the Social Democrats in the shape of a grand coalition, given that a cooperation with the Greens, under their current composition, or the Liberals, who may fall short of the 5% threshold required for a party to enter the German parliament.

Mertz: “Vote of confidence on Wednesday”

For now, however, Friedrich Merz continues the direct confrontation with Olaf Solz in high tones and declares that he will support some critical bills until Christmas, e.g. for asylum, only if the chancellor asks for a vote of confidence next Wednesday together with the planned government statements in the German parliament. In such a case the parliamentary body should decide within two days.

However, as early as last August, after the terrorist attack in Solingen, Friedrich Merz had proposed to Olaf Solz a scheme of “close cooperation” for critical bills.

Meanwhile the 2025 budget is in the air, nobody is talking about it. except for “certain bills”. However, everything points to the fact that it will not be voted on in 2024 but will be extended to 2025. Until then, Germany will probably proceed with a supplementary 2024 budget, with many critical areas such as defense, aid to Ukraine and social policy they “freeze” for the time being.