By Antonis Anzoletos
Kyriakos Mitsotakis has not adopted the suggestions that he is said to have received so much for an electoral surprise before the summer as well as for a change of the electoral law so that the bar of autonomy is lowered. Especially the second is not a simple step at all. He has so far chosen to move institutionally and such an initiative would have a serious impact on the election campaign he would give. The entire opposition would accuse him of defeatism and would constantly point out a negative first: No prime minister has changed the electoral system he legislated without implementing it. Of course the prospect of an absolute majority of 34% -35% was tempting, as ND, despite the small damage, appears resilient towards SYRIZA. The scenarios for the new election law stated that the first party would receive a bonus of up to ten seats if its difference from the second was more than 5%. The only argument that could stand was the need for the country to have a stable government, excluding the risk of successive electoral contests. However, the political risk of such a move would be great.
The orientation of the prime ministerwith the data currently available, is to set up the ballot boxes in spring time. He repeated this from Salamina: “As we gradually move towards the elections that will take place in 2023, we will rely on you again for our struggle. To claim a second four years, to continue our work». Certainly the latest overlapping crises, the pandemic, the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine have brought the world to its limits by creating extremely dynamic and unpredictable conditions. There is, however, always the expectation in the government staff that even partial return to normalcy will return ND to a double-digit trajectory from SYRIZA.
Some are still talking about early polls in the fall and even in September. They had tried it in the past, after all Costas Simitis in 1996, Costas Karamanlis in 2007 and Alexis Tsipras in 2015 and they won. 100% success rate for the then prime ministers. In this case, the TIF would be the best “pre-election balcony” for Kyriakos Mitsotakis, even if ballot boxes were set up later in the fall. SYRIZA is constantly pushing for elections as soon as possible, trying to put KINAL in this game as well.
Utilizing, however, all the time allowed by the Constitution, many members of the blue faction claim that Kyriakos Mitsotakis in this way will strengthen his reform profile. Utilizing the resources of the Recovery Fund will be one of the weapons at its disposal, while households will have the time to see in their pockets some profits or to make comparisons from the reductions in taxes, contributions, ENFIA and from the increase in the minimum wage. also The increase in pensions will be another important element for the exhaustion of the four years. Not yet clear the amount is estimated at 4.5% from the new year and is a good bonus after so many years of reductions and stagnation. The issue of consistency, which is very important in the electorate, should not be left out of the equation.
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