Cuca and Atlético-MG make calculations for the first Brazilian title in 50 years

Cuca has already confessed to waking up at dawn thinking and wondering: how many points are left to be Brazilian champion? The coach already has a number in his head for Atlético-MG to win the title. After the victory by 1-0 against América-MG, last Sunday (7), he realized he was close.

“I love talking about numbers because I just keep them in my head. I wake up at dawn and it’s numbers, go in the morning and it’s numbers. We’re always thinking about numbers,” he said after the 2-1 win against Grêmio last week. last.

For the athletic trainer, the goal is to reach 75 points. “If we hit it, hardly anyone will reach it”, projected Cuca.

Eight rounds from the end of Nacional, the team from Minas Gerais has 65. According to Cuca’s calculations, there are 10. For the Department of Mathematics of the Federal University of Minas Gerais, the probability of Atlético being champion is 95.5%.

In the last 10 years of the Brazilian Championship, the champion scored an average of 77.8 points. That’s 2.8 points more (or a victory) than Cuca imagines. In this case, 13 to confirm the achievement.

But data is variable. Flamengo was champion last season with 71. Atlético would need only two more victories to reach that number. In 2019, the red-black carioca lifted the trophy with 90 points. If they win the 24 points they will still dispute in the current edition of the competition, Cuca’s team will reach 89.

This Wednesday (10), Atlético-MG welcomes Corinthians, at Mineirão. After that, they will have three more games at home (Juventude, Fluminense and Red Bull Bragantino), where they won their last 12 matches for the Brazilian Nationals. It will also have four visitors (Bahia, Athletico-PR, Palmeiras and Grêmio) until the end of the Nacional.

The club is close to its second Brazilian title. The first took place 50 years ago, in 1971, in what was considered the first national championship in history until the CBF recognized that the Taça Brasil and the Roberto Gomes Pedrosa Tournament, played in the 1950s and 1960s, should also be considered as such.

It also helps Atlético that its two main competitors are concerned about Libertadores. Palmeiras and Flamengo decide the tournament on the 27th, in Montevideo.

At the moment, Palmeiras is with 55 points, 10 of Atlético, in second position. Flamengo is in third, with 53, but has two games in hand. In theory, if you beat them, you’re six points behind the miners.

Atlético will also have two games against Athletico, in the final of the Copa do Brasil, on December 12th and 15th.

“We’re going to have our feet on the ground, despite everything. We understood that and so did the crowd, so much so that I didn’t hear them shout ‘It’s champion’ at any time,” says Cuca.