What is known so far about the war in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, ushering in the most serious military crisis in Europe since World War II.

The Russian leader says the military action is aimed at supporting separatist enclaves in the eastern region of the Donbass, but attacks have been recorded in various parts of Ukrainian territory – particularly in its largest cities, Kiev and Kharkiv.

On the other side of the conflict is the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, raised to politics after becoming famous in the comedy. The Ukrainian leader accuses Putin of committing war crimes during the invasion and has called on the West for more concrete measures to support his country.

What is happening today in the Ukraine war?

On the sixth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, bombings were recorded in Kharkiv, the country’s second largest city. The Ukrainian chancellor shared a video on social media that shows a government building being hit by a missile.

In Kiev, the city government issued a statement calling for a “quiet night”, but according to satellite images, a 64 km long convoy formed by Russian ground forces was approaching the Ukrainian capital. The municipal administration set up protective structures at the entrances to the city.

There are reports of bombings in other important Ukrainian cities such as Buzova, Borodianka, Mariupol, Kherson and Chernihiv.

Now, the expectation is that, after facing logistical problems and violating the manual on military invasions, Vladimir Putin’s forces will become potentially more destructive to Ukraine.

On Monday (28), a round of negotiations between delegations from Kiev and Moscow ended with no progress in Belarus.

Human rights NGOs such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have denounced that Russia has used cluster bombs in the attacks in Ukraine. This type of ammunition is banned in many countries because it expands the area of ​​damage and can multiply the number of deaths and injuries.

How did Ukraine get here?

In the years leading up to the war, Ukraine was at the center of a geopolitical dispute between Russia and the West.

Putin, who had already annexed Crimea and sparked a civil war in eastern Ukraine in 2014, wants to prevent his neighbor from being incorporated by Western institutions such as the European Union and NATO (a US-led military alliance).

Now, the Russian leader is testing a risky move to assert his interests – some analysts even believe that Putin is driven by pride and paranoia.

If he wants to bend Kiev to his will and take his neighbor out of the potential orbit of NATO and the EU, the autocrat will have to deal with the diplomatic isolation that is already looming against the Kremlin, with the weight of economic sanctions against Russia and with the of the victims of the conflict on both sides – in addition to the deaths, already numbered in the hundreds, there are at least 660,000 refugees and 1 million internally displaced, according to the UN agency.

What has been the reaction inside and outside Russia?

In response to what they see as an aggression initiated by Vladimir Putin, Western governments have adopted unprecedented sanctions against Russia: the country’s banks were excluded from the Swift global financial platform, the European Union closed its airspace to Russian planes and the US and allies. blocked access by the Central Bank of Russia (BCR) to international reserves.

The backlash against the war also reached the sports world. FIFA has suspended Russia, which will be barred from participating in international competitions such as the Qatar World Cup. The International Olympic Committee has recommended that organizers of international competitions not invite Russian or Belarusian athletes to participate in the tournaments.

In the face of international pressure, the ruble plummeted, as did the Moscow stock exchange. Pressure has also been growing within the country, despite the repression: activists, celebrities and even Kremlin-linked oligarchs have taken an open stand against the war.

Protesters violate Russian laws, which prohibit protests without prior authorization, and take to the streets against Putin’s government and his decision to invade Ukraine. According to state violence monitoring NGO OVD-Info, nearly 6,500 people have already been arrested in the demonstrations.

At the UN, the Security Council held an emergency meeting the day after the start of the war to condemn the invasion of Ukraine. The resolution, however, was vetoed by Russia, which has the power to bar measures as one of the five permanent members of the collegiate.

There was also the convening of an extraordinary session of the General Assembly, where several countries made tough speeches in opposition to the conflict led by Moscow. The body, however, cannot apply measures, such as sanctions or sending peace missions – which exposes the lack of effectiveness of the United Nations in matters of this magnitude.

Even diplomatically isolated, Putin maintains the offensive and nurtures the war narrative – by determining, for example, that the country’s nuclear forces go on combat alert – while limiting state media to referring to Russian action in Ukraine with euphemisms. as “special military operation”.

What is Brazil’s position on the conflict?

Brazil has adopted a dubious stance in the face of events in Ukraine.

President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who met with Putin in Moscow a week before the conflict erupted, expressed solidarity with Russia as the country carried out military exercises on the border touted as a harbinger of the invasion.

More recently, the chief executive defended that Brazil remain neutral in the face of the conflict. “We cannot interfere. We want peace, but we cannot bring consequences here,” he declared.

Bolsonaro also mocked the fact that Zelensky had been a comedian before taking over the presidency and said it was an exaggeration to characterize what is happening in Ukraine as a “massacre” – and was called “misinformed” by the acting head of the Ukrainian embassy in Brazil.

Itamaraty, however, has adopted a more critical tone of the war, although it is sparing Putin from criticism. Brazil supported the resolution at the United Nations Security Council that called for an end to the invasion of Ukraine and again condemned the Russian attack at the General Assembly.

On the other hand, the country criticized the sending of weapons by Western governments to Ukrainian forces due to the risk of an escalation of the conflict and cited that Russian security concerns had been taken with disbelief in recent years.

How does the war between Russia and Ukraine affect Brazil’s economy?

The economic war puts pressure on the price of commodities such as oil, natural gas, wheat and corn, and food inflation in the world and in Brazil is expected to accelerate again. Economists estimate that the conflicts in Ukraine tend to generate an increase in inflationary pressure in Brazil, which can lead to a need for even higher interest rates by the Central Bank, and, consequently, to lower economic growth.

Ukraine sells around 20% of the world’s corn, a relevant weight, although it lags behind the US, Brazil and Argentina. Ukraine and Russia export around 30% of the wheat purchased by the rest of the planet. Brazil is one of the largest wheat importers, which puts pressure on prices for products such as bread and pasta.

Russia is one of the major oil producers, and a military conflict affects the market for the product. Large companies in the energy sector and in other sectors have stopped activities in the Russian market. The country is also Brazil’s main supplier of fertilizers, and fertilizer prices are expected to rise further with sanctions on the country led by Putin.

The sanctions imposed on Russia, such as the withdrawal of banks from the Swift international payment system and the freezing of part of international reserves, can make it impossible to ship products to Brazil and even delay the landing of goods that are already on their way. The bottlenecks in foreign trade are another factor that should contribute to the rise in prices of products imported by Brazil.

Depending on the size of the war, the impact on economic confidence could be large and extend for at least a few months, which would reduce the prospects for economic growth. Fearful investors often put off new projects or expansions, which means fewer jobs.

to see and hear

Click here to follow all TV Folha videos about the war in Ukraine.

Listen to all episodes of the Café da Manhã podcast about the war in Ukraine