H UEFA made significant changes to Champions Leagueturning the 8 groups into… League Phase. The results show that the event has become even more commercial and spectacular, while now the clubs have more income.
Last season was the first and trial, with the 24th finally being judged on 11 points. A number that was higher than the initial predictions and simulations made, since it was predicted that even 10 points would reach a team for the qualification. However, the maiden year was ultimately and unpredictable.
Based on what we have seen so far and after 3 matches in this year’s League Phase of the Champions League, the score limit for the 24th seems certain to be lowered. With most simulations showing how 10 points will probably be more than enoughwhile there are significant chances for a club to even qualify with 9 points. Something certainly particularly positive and encouraging for him as well Olympicwho has 1 point and five matches left. With four of these matches, he should be at his best to celebrate victories and put the… train on the tracks!
The difference is that this season, at least at the beginning, points are shared. They already exist 11 draws in 54 matcheswhile last year in 144 matches in the League Phase there were only 18! Teams that initially had more chances for qualification or for a big harvest such as Benfica, Villarreal and Leverkusen, but also Ajax have clearly less. There are also surprise teams, such as Qarabag which has 6 points in 3 matches.
Number of draws in ?? UCL league stage:
2024/25 ?? 1?8? in 144 matches = 12.5%
2025/26 ?? 1?1? in 54 matches = 20.4%
— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) October 23, 2025
For example, the teams that have won at least one in League Phasei.e. they have three points, they are in the 24th place. Also, last season after 3 games, the teams that had at least 4 points were in 22nd place and above, while this year Atalanta with 4 is 17th. Another example showing that the average score for the qualification will decrease.
Also, “Stats Rocket” reports that in more than 10,000 simulations that have been done after the end of the first three matches, 61.1% of the results put teams that have accumulated 9 points in the 24th. The 10 points, data ensures qualification, at 9 there is a very high possibility but there is a serious possibility that several clubs will draw and we will be led to the criterion of goal difference. An example of how important it is for all teams to avoid heavy defeats and if they can win by more than one goal…
?? Champions League — Probability & Threshold Update (after 3 rounds)
Three matchdays in, and the picture is starting to take shape.
I ran 10,000 ELO simulations to estimate qualification chances for the Top 8 (direct to R16) and Top 24 (playoff).
?? Top 8 favourites:… pic.twitter.com/DkqsIunVlq
— Stats Rocket (@StatsRocketX) October 23, 2025
Source: Sport Fm
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