If the polls so far are to be believed, Lula’s victory next year is clear and certain. And that Bolsonaro would lose in the second round against any opponent. As we get closer to the election, however, everything can change. We mustn’t rule out Bolsonaro anytime soon.
The president has an asset that no other candidate, until now, has: engagement and militancy. On the streets, the difference is stark: huge protests; crowd of supporters to applaud him wherever he goes. The same does not happen with Lula. There is no contradiction between easily leading the polls and not having popular engagement — Biden say so. But the unequal engagement indicates, at the very least, that Bolsonaro will have a large advantage in the number of volunteers in his favor next year.
And he also learned to use the most effective means to maintain that edge: social media. Radicalization via social media (including direct message apps) is in full swing, and 2022 promises to be even dirtier and more violent than 2018. It was a testament to its power in mobilizing more than 2 million people to vote for Bolsonaro as Person of the Year in the Time magazine poll earlier this month. And the application used for that, Telegram, has everything to be the main weapon of electoral combat.
Whatsapp, a competitor of Telegram, has been taking steps to weaken the power of broadcasting polarizing content. The maximum number of members in a group is 256, it is only possible to replicate a content to five other profiles simultaneously (limitation that came into effect in 2019). With highly replicated content, that number drops to one. On Telegram, none of this goes. Groups can reach 200,000 members each, and content broadcast is completely free.
It is ironic, to say the least, that these WhatsApp actions to curb fake news work to the exact extent that they impede precisely the distinguishing factor of social networks: giving every citizen the opportunity to express themselves to the crowds. Limiting networks seems to say “we want ordinary people to speak out, but not too much!” Is the only safeguard that protects us against populist leaders by limiting the power that could otherwise be in the hands of the common citizen, and that at the discretion of a few tech billionaires?
My optimistic side prefers to believe no: society is yet to mature in its use of information. But a realistic look also sees limits in these democratic safeguards created by the big techs.
The great network magnates do, in fact, have a lot of power. There is no guarantee, however, that this power will last. Mark Zuckerberg, as much as he tries to convince us that the next revolution will come from his company and the “metaverse” he created, is now concerned that his networks are unable to attract younger users. And this while the eyes of world politics are all turning against him, demanding new restrictions to fight fake news. With each new restriction, the more attractive its rivals become, such as Telegram, where there is more freedom.
Power is gradually passing from hands, going to applications like Telegram and TikTok, respectively Russian and Chinese companies, countries whose governments have every interest in controlling free expression, but not in directions that favor science and objective knowledge. It is not clear how we will overcome these “post-truth” and polarization times. But the threat they bring will remain with us well beyond 2022.
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I have over 8 years of experience in the news industry. I have worked for various news websites and have also written for a few news agencies. I mostly cover healthcare news, but I am also interested in other topics such as politics, business, and entertainment. In my free time, I enjoy writing fiction and spending time with my family and friends.
