Solar storms: Are telecommunications in danger?

In a solar storm, microparticles move through a huge cloud of plasma from the sun to the planets and may hit telecommunications satellites orbiting the earth. Recently, the American aerospace company SpaceX, founded by Tesla Elon Musk, “lost” about 40 of its satellites due to a solar storm.

These storms are caused by explosions in the sun. Some scientists predict that the phenomenon of storms will intensify in the coming years. From the end of 2019, experts find intense activity on the surface of the sun in a cycle lasting 11 years. In fact, they expect the peak of the storms in the period 2024-2026.

The European Space Agency (ESA) says that in such a storm billions of tons of microparticles and plasma are launched into space and travel at high speed to the planet Earth at a distance of 150 million kilometers. Of course, the earth is also protected by the atmosphere, but also by its electromagnetic field. Microparticles can, however, penetrate the atmosphere and cause significant damage to satellites, power grids, navigation systems and communications.

“Only 10% probability for an extreme phenomenon”

The space coordinator at the European Space Agency’s Darmstadt branch in Germany, Melanie Hale, says “there must be early warnings to protect the Earth’s power grid.” He estimates that if the providers are notified in time, they will be able to limit the operation of generators and transformers, so as not to be damaged by the storms. According to the German expert, it is very difficult to make a correct prediction about the strength of the space phenomenon. Melanie Hale gives a 10% chance of an extreme phenomenon that will cause extensive property damage in the coming years.

Scientists believe that a warning about timely action is almost impossible, since the microparticles move at high speed in our solar system. “If we did not have observation points for extreme phenomena, such as solar storms, it would not be possible to gather important data that contribute to the forecast,” said the German expert, adding that both in terms of human resources and in terms of the technical equipment we have at our disposal “.

With Vigil, solar storms will be observed in their infancy

The European Space Agency hopes that with the unmanned spacecraft Vigil it will gather a lot of information about the phenomenon of solar storms. The head of the mission, Giuseppe Madorlo, recently stated that “with the help of Vigil, it is possible to identify potential risks to infrastructure on earth.” According to the Italian expert, the mission starts in 2027 and will enable European scientists to observe developments in the sun from different angles, as well as to observe solar storms in their genesis.

Scientists are unable to answer the important question of how powerful and dangerous extremes will eventually be. Just two years ago, in 2020, experts from the Solar Cycle Forecasting Committee (SCPP) predicted that solar storms in this 11-year cycle would be mild as in the previous one. The team around Scott McIntosh from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the American city of Boulder outside Denver, Colorado, however, have a different view and consider many more and stronger solar storms more likely. It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post.

DW

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