THE asteroid by name 2024 YR4 He has disappeared from the field of view of telescopes, but remains at the center of scientists’ interest – and now the attention is turned to his possible impact with the Moonnot the Earth.

In accordance with CNNthe asteroid, discovered at the end of 2024, initially seemed to be on the orbit of the Earth with the possibility of up to 3.1%, ranking it one of the most dangerous ever observed. However, as more data from terrestrial and space telescopes were collected, the possibility of an impact on Earth has been reduced to virtually zero and the Esa He now described this approach as safe.

New observations in early June improved 2024 YR4 orbit by about 20%, causing its possible conflict with the Earth. However, the same observations increased the likelihood of an impact on the Moon to about 4.3%, an unexpected and highly scientifically interesting event.

Asteroid has a diameter of about 60 meters, ie the size of a building, according to observations of James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) March 2025 – a critical information on the calculation of the energy released in the event of an impact.

If the 2024 YR4 clashes with the Moon on December 22, 2032, it will be a rare event: it will create a crater about 1 km in diameter, possibly the largest in the Moon in the last 5,000 years. It is estimated that up to 10⁸ kg of lunar material can be launched to Earth, possibly in the form of meteorological rain from fine fragments (0.1-10 mm) in the following days or months after impact.

Although such fragments will not be a danger to people on the surface of the earth, they can threaten satellites and possible facilities or astronauts in orbit or on the Moon if they are at that time.

Now, asteroid is a landmark case for defending the planet. Scientists emphasize that they may have to extend the “protection zone” beyond the Earth, including objects with a possible impact on the Moon.

At the moment, scientists evaluate potential scenarios and explore possible treatment solutions. For example, if it is a dangerous orbit, the disorientation mission could be examined, such as in the DART mission that succeeded in modifying the Asteroid Dimorphos asbella in 2022. However, for 2024 YR4, the planning period is limited, and an initiative of such a way would require international cooperation and strategy 2028.