On November 28, Hondurans will be called to participate in the tenth general electoral process since the return to constitutional order in 1982.
More than 5 million voters are expected to go to the polls to choose national and municipal executive and legislative authorities, as well as representatives to the Central American Parliament.
Consequently, in January 2022, a new government will take over the country’s destinies.
In addition to choosing candidates, this election is of crucial importance in determining whether or not Honduras can continue to be considered a country governed by a representative democratic regime.
Since the irregular interruption of the term of President Manuel Zelaya in 2009, numerous reports, particularly of the project Variedades da Democracia, V-Dem, warned that the country had fallen into the category of electoral authoritarianism.
This means that it is a hybrid regime with minimal competition and political participation, and with little regard for the rule of law or accountability. A political panorama comparable to that of Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
In addition to celebrating a civic and republican party, the next Honduran elections will determine whether the nation will manage to recover or whether it will continue to be the victim of a very serious process of democratic erosion.
After a “tragic decade”, in which all kinds of irregularities, crimes and political abuses were found, the Honduran people have a magnificent opportunity to correct the course of the State, society and its international insertion.
The Honduran process was preceded by political and electoral reforms that produced a new institutionality.
Among the main provisions, the creation of a National Electoral Council and an Electoral Court of Justice stands out. There have also been some innovations in technology, in gender parity, and a census cleanup.
Unfortunately, it was not possible to move forward with regard to the introduction of the second round, the so-called “citizenship of polling stations” or greater controls on the financing of campaigns and parties.
In general, these reforms sought to generate transparency and trust, as well as to re-assure the integrity and legitimacy of institutions and the proper mechanisms of electoral or vertical accountability, a fundamental dimension of the quality of democracy.
The matter is extremely urgent, especially given the numerous irregularities, gaps and shortcomings in the last three Honduran general elections.
This explains the notorious drop in the rate of citizen support for democracy, as shown by, among others, the 2021 Latinobarometer report, with a reduction in citizen support for the democratic regime between 2006 and 2020, from 55% to 30%.
Abstention exceeds 40% of the census, and winners won with approximately 25% of valid votes and a narrow margin relative to other contestants.
As a result, within the framework of this “tragic decade”, Honduras is one of the Latin American countries with the least public support for the democratic regime.
This is extremely worrisome and represents an involution with spurious implications for the local population and negative regional, hemispheric and global ramifications.
Who competes?
Regarding the competition for the presidency, there are 14 candidates running, an unprecedented number. According to polls, two of these candidacies have real possibilities of achieving victory.
On one side is Xiomara Castro (Partido Libertad y Refundación-Libre), who heads a multi-party alliance of center and left parties. Currently, Castro has between 30% and 35% of voting intentions.
Since general elections are decided by simple majority, the candidate presents the best options to achieve victory. In this case, it would be the first time in the history of Honduras that a woman would reach the presidency.
It is worth adding that Castro proposes a reformist, social-democratic and popular government plan for the country.
On the other hand, Nasry Asfura, from the right-wing National Party and former mayor of Tegucigalpa, is the government candidate. According to polls, he has between 20% and 25% of voting intentions.
Although he has some support due to his reasonable municipal management in the capital and the support of President Juan Orlando Hernández, the numerous errors, irregularities and abuses, both his own and of his party and government during the last three terms of office, weighed against his aspirations. .
In the current situation, it is highly likely that the ruling party’s candidate will be defeated at the polls and that Hernández, with low and dwindling popular support, will be replaced by an opponent. This would allow for a healthy alternation in power.
The other hopefuls have very few options in the competition for the presidency. However, they can contribute to the field of party-political pluralism, democratic representation and the shaping of the future National Congress.
All of this would favor the recomposition of Executive-Legislative relations, the revaluation of the party system and the formation of majorities in the next period.
Other variables that could influence the preferences of Honduran voters are the effects of the Covid pandemic and adverse weather phenomena, as well as social exclusion and political culture.
The positioning of social and economic actors, such as the business community, organized civil society, social movements, religious institutions, the armed forces and the mass media, is also relevant.
The international community, through observers from the Organization of American States and the European Union, will contribute to guaranteeing the integrity and transparency of the electoral process.
The governments of Washington and Mexico City are also following and monitoring the process, mainly looking for a valid interlocutor in Tegucigalpa.
Basically, someone willing to work to reduce migratory flows, repress transnational crimes, fight corruption and impunity, ensure social and economic development, and promote effective, republican and democratic government in the Central American country.
Honduras has the opportunity to reverse the harmful process of democratic erosion observed since 2009.
The irregular interruption of Zelaya’s term began a “tragic decade” and was one of the first symptoms of the wave of autocratization that ended up engulfing other Latin American and Caribbean nations.
The next Honduran electoral process has the potential to define much more than the leaders of the executive and legislative branches.
Based on the premise that general elections will be free and fair, on November 28, Hondurans will decide whether the country can retrace its destiny along the path of representative and republican democracy or sink into electoral authoritarianism, caudilloism, ungovernability and barbarism.
In my opinion, the Honduran people can and deserve to build a democratic recomposition, ensure the transfer of power to a new political leadership, and move towards a better future.
translation of Maria Isabel Santos Lima
.
