A polarized presidential election, in which the favorites to reach the second round are a leftist who has already called his opponent a fascist and a rightist who accuses the other of wanting to establish communism in the country, all this in a context of threats of violence against candidates and amidst the temptation of members of the Armed Forces to interfere in the political process.
Sounds familiar? In fact, it is, but we are not talking about Brazil, but Colombia, which this Sunday (29) is holding the first round to choose the next president.
For those who see the above description as a scenario of troubled elections, add as a backdrop a country that is trying to get out of an armed conflict lasting more than five decades that has already killed 260,000 people, expelled another 5 million from their homes or lands and turned Marxist-oriented guerrillas into drug traffickers and soldiers into mafia paramilitaries.
Despite not being the most discussed topic in presidential debates, emphasis is given to high unemployment and inflation rates, the difficult implementation of the peace agreement signed by the Colombian government in 2016 with the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), the main narco-guerrilla group country, is a crucial issue for local stability.
Proof of this is this year’s election campaign itself. Both the left-wing candidate, Gustavo Petro, and the right-wing representative, Federico “Fico” Gutiérrez, have suffered death threats from drug cartels and paramilitary groups. Colombia has a long history of candidates and politicians killed or victims of attacks.
These criminal organizations grew and strengthened in the vacuum left by the FARC members who laid down their arms in 2016. Narcoguerrillas of the National Liberation Army (ELN), which did not adhere to the peace agreement, and FARC dissidents also remain active. .
And, as with many Colombians, the life of each candidate also tells part of the story of the never-ending cycle of violence in the country. This is the case with populist Rodolfo Hernández, who in recent weeks has landed third in the polls on Fico Gutiérrez, with a real chance of taking him out of the second round. Businessman and former mayor of Bucaramanga, Hernández paid a ransom in 1994 to free his father, who had been kidnapped by the FARC. Ten years later, her daughter Juliana, 23, was taken by the ELN and never found again. It took Hernández years to come to terms with that she was dead.
The biography of Petro, by far the leader in the polls with around 40% of voting intentions, has been a full plate for Fico, the runner-up with 27%, accuses him of being an “ally” and “friend” of the FARC. , for having defended its leaders and not intending to demand that they fully comply with their part of the peace agreement, such as paying reparations to the victims and completely laying down their arms.
Petro is a former member of the M-19, an urban guerrilla group that operated in Colombia in the 1970s and 1980s and that starred in one of the bloodiest episodes ever seen in Bogotá: the attack on the Palace of Justice, in which the guerrillas held 350 hostages for two days and which was ended by a military operation with 98 dead and 11 missing. Petro did not participate in the action because he was in prison for illegally carrying weapons. In 1990, the M-19 closed an agreement to end the armed struggle and many of its members, including the current candidate, pursued a political career.
Since then, he has defended that a similar process of integration with the political establishment through the laying down of arms should also be negotiated with rural groups such as the FARC and the ELN.
In the current campaign, he promised to fully comply with the peace agreement negotiated and signed in 2016 by then-President Juan Manuel Santos, with emphasis on the commitments made by the State, such as agrarian reform and projects for the development of remote regions that were previously under the control of the guerrillas.
He also plans to give more guarantees and security to former guerrillas, who continue to be targets of old enemies (competing drug traffickers and paramilitaries) or even former accomplices. According to Indepaz, a Colombian NGO, since the beginning of this year 21 former FARC members have been murdered in the country, in addition to 77 community leaders and human rights defenders. Petro also says he is ready to re-negotiate with the ELN, a group that maintains around 2,500 armed men and women.
Fico Gutiérrez also promises to comply with the peace agreement, but his focus is on demanding that the FARC lay down all weapons, a process that, according to him, was only carried out in half, the delivery of goods acquired with funds from drug trafficking, kidnappings and extortion. and the payment of reparations to their victims. Fico does not talk about negotiating with the ELN and says it is necessary to fight hard against dissident groups and paramilitaries who have not demobilized.
Another difference between the favorites to reach the second round is their stance on the war on drugs. Petro says that the strategy of repressing drug trafficking, closely linked to the problem of the armed conflict, has not worked, given that coca production in the country has increased in the last three decades. He proposes to “regulate” part of the cultivation, which presupposes the legal exploitation of products “derived” from coca, something similar to the “traditional use” existing in Bolivia, and to replace the rest with other crops.
Fico also defends the strengthening of programs to encourage the replacement of coca cultivation with other plants, but promises to continue with the policy of destroying illegal crops by spraying herbicides. Petro is against this measure and says that you cannot “criminalize producers”.
The underdog Hernández’s program for the peace process, on the other hand, is more similar to Petro’s. He wants to include the ELN in the peace agreement established with the FARC, without the need to start a new negotiation from scratch. As for drug trafficking, he defends the replacement of coca plantations with marijuana, which he believes should be legalized.
The complex Colombian peace agreement provided for the fulfillment of stages within a period of 15 years, of which five have already passed. Little progress has been made in the current government of Iván Duque, for other reasons due to the difficulties imposed by the pandemic. Part of the success in forcing the FARC to the negotiating table is attributed to the relentless military actions against its leaders and its funding sources, including drug trafficking, in previous years. Petro’s plans to take a lighter hand against criminal activities do not guarantee that the peace agreement will in fact result in peace for Colombia.
