Colombia will have 2nd round between leftist and populist surprise, indicates initial investigation

The Colombian presidential election will have a second round, to be held on June 19, between the leftist Gustavo Petro and the populist Rodolfo Hernández, indicates the beginning of the counting this Sunday (29).

With 39.56% of the ballot boxes counted, Petro has 40.92%, followed by Hernández, with 28.44%.

Petro’s leadership came as no surprise, as the candidate, who is trying to win the post for the third time, had been number one in the polls since the campaign began. The novelty was Hernández. The former mayor of Bucaramanga appeared for months in sixth place in the surveys, but in recent weeks he has run over the most quoted names to reach the second round.

The favorite to face Petro was the rightist Federico “Fico” Gutiérrez, a former mayor of Medellín, supported by the current government of Iván Duque and the Democratic Center, a party led by the caudillo Álvaro Uribe, a popular former president of Colombia. He currently has 23.48%.

If the polling trend is confirmed, Hernández will also displace centrist Sergio Fajardo, who came in third in the polls and was preferred by the more urban electorate.

The decision to take Petro and Hernández to the final contest, if implemented, is related to the strong rejection of Duque and the continuity of right-wing policies – Colombia has never been ruled by the left. The disquiet against a neoliberal model in the economy and conservative in customs was revealed with force in the popular demonstrations of 2019 and 2021, which resulted in strong repression by the police.

Among the leftist’s main proposals are agrarian reform, reducing the unemployment rate — currently at 12% — by creating jobs in the state and reducing the country’s dependence on oil, Colombia’s main export product. Petro has an anti-extractive speech and stated that he will prioritize production from the countryside and industries. In recent debates, he stated that his government would be a social democracy and that expropriations were out of the plan.

A former member of the M-19 who was arrested and tortured in the 1980s, Petro, 62, embraced the democratic option after the guerrillas he was a part of demobilized. He was elected senator twice and also led the mayor of the Colombian capital, Bogotá, the second most important office in the country.

Hernández, in turn, runs a campaign based on simple and direct messages, with extensive use of social networks, such as TikTok. At 76, he became popular due to his anti-corruption speech and the caravans on motorcycles or trucks, especially in the countryside. Rich businessman in the construction sector, he was mayor of Bucaramanga and has a poor background. He has already claimed to be an admirer of Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler, to later apologize and say that he was wrong and that, in fact, he meant Albert Einstein.

Despite being against abortion and equal marriage, Hernández is in favor of legalizing drugs.

Both finalists are in favor of the full implementation of the agreement with the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia). The treaty, now part of the Constitution, has faced difficulties in practice. It worked in the disarmament and demobilization of the guerrillas and in the trials of the special court, but points such as agrarian reform and the protection of ex-combatants were left aside, causing more than 150 deaths of ex-guerrillas and dissidents, who joined criminal groups. and linked to drug trafficking.

Unlike the last election, in 2018, in this election, peace with the guerrillas did not appear as the main concern of Colombians. Unemployment, health, taxes and greater participation of the State in pensions were themes that appeared more strongly in the presidential debates.

Election day passed without major problems, according to Colombian and foreign observers, but episodes of violence occurred in the departments of Meta, Caquetá and Guaviare.

In Meta, there was an explosion 100 meters from a polling place, and in El Retorno another bomb hit a soldier, who was wounded. The rains hampered the Colombians, and in Meta it was necessary to move polling stations so that voters could have access to the polls.