London: Thanasis Gavos
A British analysis of developments in Ukraine, cited by the Daily Mirror, estimates that the enormous losses suffered by Russian army could lead to its “collapse”.
According to the newspaper, the latest estimate of the Ukrainians puts the Russian losses at 30,350 soldiers, 207 planes, 174 helicopters, 1,349 tanks and 13 ships.
The report, written by a “leading British analyst” on Russian issues and in the hands of British government officials, said, however, that President Putin considered the losses “a price to pay” for a small victory in Ukraine.
In particular, it is noted that the Russian leader believes that he can achieve a “partial victory” by conquering Donbass, something that would give him a big advantage over Kiev in the negotiations to end the conflict.
On the contrary, it is estimated that failure in Donbass would lead to its overthrow.
It is stressed that Kremlin officials have tried “in vain” to convince Putin that his invasion of Ukraine is a “disaster” .
It is also estimated that a Russian failure to fully dominate Donbass would not trigger a Putin order for some sort of nuclear strike.
The Mirror quotes the following report from the secret report: “Russia’s attempt to achieve a quick and decisive victory in Donbas has not yet been crowned with success. They are still moving forward slowly, gaining one to two kilometers a day. “The Russians are now recording any of their successes, mainly with a grueling struggle with repeated, very costly, artillery attacks reminiscent of 1945 and not 2022.”
At the same time, it is noted that so far the great failure of the campaign in Ukraine has been hidden from Russian public opinion or attributed to officials who have been arrested or replaced. “Until recently, the Russian people were ‘eating’ Putin’s misinformation. “We have seen an attempt inside the Kremlin to send a message to Putin and his closest group that things are going wrong, maybe even catastrophically,” the British analysis added, according to the Mirror.
Meanwhile, in its latest official update, the British Ministry of Defense states that the occupation of Liman by the Russians supports their basic operational effort, which probably remains the siege of Sheverondonietsk and the closing of the encirclement around the Ukrainian forces in the province. . Heavy bombardment continues, most likely with street battles on the outskirts of Severodonetsk.
The ministry adds that elements of its Southern Force Group Russiathat is, in southern Ukraine, are likely to have the greatest success in the axis of operations in this area of ​​military operations, supported by the Central Force attacking from the north.
“(The Russians) ‘s progress is slow, but the gains are maintained. The corridors to the enclave probably remain under Ukrainian control. Russia has had greater local success than earlier in the campaign, concentrating forces and firing in a relatively small area. “This forces Russia to take risks elsewhere in the occupied territories.”
The Ministry of Defense concludes by pointing out that Russia’s political goal remains to occupy the entire territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, but in order to achieve this, Russia will have to achieve other goals besides Sheverodonetsk. These targets are “difficult” and include the city of Kramatorsk and the M04 motorway connecting Dnipro with Donetsk.
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