As Russia approaches its goal of conquering Lugansk province in eastern Ukraine, the United States and Germany have announced the deployment of advanced weapons long-requested by Kiev in its fight against the invasion that began 98 days ago.
The Russian reaction was immediate, motivated mainly by the information that President Joe Biden confirmed the sending of M142 Himars systems (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, in the English acronym) to the Ukrainians. They are medium-range missile launchers, 80 km.
“It’s extremely negative,” Vice Chancellor Sergei Riabkov told the RIA-Novosti news agency, saying the move puts the two nuclear powers at risk of a confrontation. For its part, the Kremlin reacted in a somewhat predictable way: it announced an exercise in nuclear forces and the entry into service of yet another hypersonic missile in its arsenal.
There are no details on when and how the artillery systems will be deployed, but recent experience has shown the US can do it quickly. It should not, however, be enough to prevent the fall of Severodonetsk, Lugansk’s last major city under heavy Russian attack.
The governor of the province, which is part of Donbass alongside Donetsk, Serhii Haidai, said that Moscow virtually controls the city, which is 70% occupied. If he finishes the job there, Putin will be able to concentrate forces to try to take the rest of Donetsk and fulfill what he has announced as an objective at this stage of the war – whether he will take advantage and stop there is another story.
Despite the step, there was some restraint on the part of the US. According to unofficial information, the Himars model to be delivered has a range of 80 km, while there are versions that reach almost 300 km. These had been denied by Biden on Monday (30), as they represent the risk of attacks on Russian territory, and the consequent escalation that sees a Third World War at the end of the road.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself said on Tuesday night that his country would not use such missiles against its neighbor’s soil, only to try to drive him out. The weapons are part of the new US$700 million US weapons package for Kiev. The argument did not convince the Russians, whose concentration of forces in the Kursk region with defensive claims has raised suspicions of further actions across the Ukrainian northeast.
It did not help the mood for a second announcement this Wednesday morning (1st) by German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz that his country would make available to Zelensky the Iris-T SL anti-aircraft system, “the most advanced at the disposal of Germany”. “.
Like every Berlin-type measure, it’s best to wait and see, as the promised air defense tanks for more than a month have so far failed to appear in the field. Germans are seen in Kiev as veiled supporters of Putin, given that the Russians are suppliers of much of their energy — the Russian oil embargo has been negotiated that gives the country time to look for alternatives.
The Iris-T SL is the land-launched, radar-guided, short- and medium-range version of the infrared-seeking model used by aircraft — purchased by the Brazilian Air Force for its new fighter, the Gripen.
In addition to Riabkov’s complaint, about 1,000 soldiers are undergoing nuclear readiness exercises in the Ivanovo region, northwest of Moscow. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, 100 vehicles are involved in the maneuver, including mobile launchers for the Iars intercontinental missile.
Since the beginning of the conflict, Vladimir Putin has used the nuclear variable to try to dissuade the West from getting more directly involved in the Ukraine War. He does spot tests in times of tension, like now. He had great initial success, but the growing realization that his threats are just that has raised the bar for military supplies to Kiev.
Indeed, one could say that Moscow’s failure to overthrow Zelensky’s government in the early stages of the war has as much to do with strategic and tactical mistakes as with the West providing Kiev with adequate defense weapons at that time.
Now, with the war concentrated and quite violent in the east of the country, Ukraine has been asking for extra help. Zelensky said 60 to 100 Ukrainian soldiers are dying every day in the region, with 500 wounded, which is a high rate.
Moscow also announced on Tuesday that it will put into operation its second hypersonic missile model, the Tsirkon (zircon, in Russian). On Saturday (28), a successful test completed the campaign of trials of the weapon, one of the “invincibles” touted by Putin in 2018.
The Tsirkon is launched by ships and, in Saturday’s test, hit a target 1,000 km away. It will initially be adopted by the Northern Fleet, based in the Arctic region of Murmansk. Russia already operates a less sophisticated hypersonic model, the Kinjal (dagger), which is launched by planes and has been used a few times against Ukraine.
