Jair Bolsonaro (PL) will arrive in Los Angeles in the next few days for his first meeting with the President of the United States, Joe Biden, in an agenda seen by the Planalto Palace as an opportunity to break the Brazilian leader’s image of isolation and international pariah.
The meeting, held amidst the Summit of the Americas, comes a year and a half after Biden came to power in Washington, during which time the two presidents never spoke directly.
The lack of dialogue between the heads of the two largest economies on the American continent is no accident. Until recently, Bolsonaro was considered a toxic figure by the White House, and Biden’s aides earlier this year ruled out the possibility of a phone call with the Brazilian — a face-to-face meeting was even less on the radar.
The shift in US foreign policy is a result of different factors.
In the immediate plan, the possibility of the Summit of the Americas turning into a diplomatic failure due to the absence of the most important countries in Latin America was skillfully explored by Bolsonaro and allies, who valued the pass of the Brazilian presence.
But interlocutors point out that the dynamics of the bilateral relationship has changed recently and that previously predominant themes — such as the environment — have lost ground in the face of a conflicted geopolitical framework marked by Russia’s war against Ukraine.
“This is a very profound change in the US position towards Brazil and the Bolsonaro government. [Bolsonaro] to have a devastating environmental policy, to defy democracy and to have a very dubious position in relation to the conflict in Ukraine”, evaluates Hussein Kalout, a researcher at Harvard University and advisor to the Brazilian Center for International Relations.
For Paulo Abrão, a researcher at Brown University and director of the Washington Brazil Office, the bilateral meeting will be an opportunity for Bolsonaro to “reverse his image of unpreparedness in the international arena”. “He can only gain from a meeting whose origin is a request from Biden himself, in a context in which the US wants Brazil further away from Russia and China,” he says.
Bolsonaro only decided to travel to Los Angeles after receiving an emissary from Biden in Brasília. In addition to stating that the Democrat would agree to meet with the Brazilian on the sidelines of the summit, former senator Christopher Dodd said that the US government does not intend to create constraints for the Brazilian leader during the event.
Planalto understood the message as a promise that Biden should not make demands for Bolsonaro to stop promoting coup attacks on the Brazilian electoral system and electronic voting machines.
The possibility of such a charge was cited as one of the reasons why Bolsonaro should not go to Los Angeles, especially after Reuters reported that, last year, the CIA chief had transmitted a similar message during meetings in Brasilia.
Experts converge in the analysis that the chances of any more robust announcement after Biden’s conversation with Bolsonaro are low. One sign in that direction is that American and Brazilian diplomats are not working on a joint communiqué for the occasion.
The effects will be mostly symbolic, and Bolsonaro seems to be the big beneficiary. By taking the photo with Biden, he will have a strong argument to say that, contrary to what his critics claim, he is not an isolated leader without relevance on the international stage.
“The conversation between the presidents will cover a wide range of topics. Food insecurity, economic response to the pandemic, health. And the topic of climate change, something that the president [Biden] has made clear as a priority,” Juan González, director for the Western Hemisphere at the US National Security Council, said this week.
Asked about Bolsonaro’s attacks on the electoral system, González said the US trusts local institutions. “The issue of Brazilian elections is really something for Brazilians to decide.”
Asked about the same topic, Ambassador Pedro Miguel da Costa e Silva, head of the Americas Secretariat at Itamaraty, highlights that the defense of democracy is a subject that the government approaches with tranquility.
“One of the documents that we are discussing at the summit is about democracy and human rights. Brazil has been participating in this negotiation since the beginning, and it is a peaceful topic for us. The commitments that Brazil has made internationally make the discussion very calm.” , said.
The agenda for the meeting between Bolsonaro and Biden will ultimately be defined by the leaders themselves, but the diplomacy of the two countries suggests a range of subjects. In addition to the document on democracy, the leaders in Los Angeles are expected to sign other joint statements: on post-pandemic health, digital transformation, energy transition and green future. The texts are still under discussion.
There is still a negotiation regarding a text on migration, but it is a delicate issue in which the countries of the region – including Brazil – say that balance is necessary. “The document that comes out has to be balanced to reflect the positions of the countries of the hemisphere, not only of the Americans. The issue of migration cannot be seen only from the point of view of the Americans”, says Costa e Silva.
The ninth edition of the Summit of the Americas, to be held from Monday (6) to Friday (10), was designed by Washington to symbolize the return of US leadership in Latin American affairs, after the Presidency of Donald Trump, during which regional issues took a back seat – at the last summit, in 2018, the Republican did not go to Lima and became the first US leader to miss the meeting.
The event, however, ran the risk of being deflated after Bolsonaro and the president of Mexico, the leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador, signaled that they did not intend to attend. Until this Saturday, at least 15 countries had confirmed their presence, according to a survey by the Council of the Americas.
In the case of AMLO, the possible absence is a response to the Americans’ decision not to invite the leaders of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela to the meeting, dictatorships treated as pariahs by the US.
After Los Angeles, Bolsonaro should extend the trip to Orlando, Florida, to inaugurate a vice consulate of Brazil and find supporters. On the same date, federal deputy Daniel Silveira (PTB-RJ), who recently received a presidential pardon from a conviction given by the STF, and Bolsonarista blogger Allan dos Santos, considered a fugitive by Brazilian justice, must be in the city.
For Benjamin Gedan, director of Latin America at the Wilson Center, the risk of emptying was a clear sign of the great skepticism that exists in relation to the meeting. “The US is unlikely to announce large-scale investments in Latin America or propose new trade treaties,” he says.
One of the proposals commented on by US authorities is the advance of “nearshoring”: bringing to Latin America part of the industrial production chains currently based in Asia. The measure would help reduce economic dependence on China and create jobs in countries where people want to emigrate, especially in Central America.
According to the State Department, the private sector has already announced investments of at least US$ 1.2 billion (R$ 5.7 billion) in Central America, after a call made by Vice President Kamala Harris in December.
“For smaller economies, this move [de nearshoring] could serve to contain the economic influence of China and Russia. However, the effectiveness of this for Brazil is more complex. China is our main trade partner today, we have a favorable trade balance with them and the US itself is our biggest competitor in the supply of agricultural commodities to China”, says Abram.
Countries confirmed at the Summit
Argentina
Brazil
Canada
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Guyana
Ecuador
United States
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Dominican Republic
Trinidad and Tobago
Uruguay
Not called:
Cuba
Nicaragua
Venezuela
Source: Council of the Americas. Data until Friday (3). The Americas bring together 35 nations.
Some of the Summit debates proposed by the US:
Democracy
Create mechanisms to defend democracy, support international observer missions in elections, strengthen the fight against corruption and protect the press and human rights activists.
Health
Expand access to care centers, medical training and scientific research to strengthen protection against new pandemics.
energy transition
Create clean energy adoption goals, exchange technical knowledge and encourage partnerships between companies on the continent.
climate change
Advancing in the fight against deforestation, based on the terms of the 2021 Glasgow Declaration, reducing carbon emissions and water pollution.
digital transformation
Create a regional digital transformation agenda to increase access to the internet and digital services, especially for the poorest.
Immigration
Seek to stem the flow of immigrants to the US, improve economic conditions in poor countries to discourage migration, expand refugee protection, and combat coyotes and human traffickers.
