With magnifying glasses, screwdrivers and a delicate touch of a soldering iron, two men from an investigation group tracking weapons dismantled Russian ammunition and equipment that had been captured across Ukraine.
During last month’s week-long visit to Ukraine, investigators dismantled every piece of advanced Russian hardware they could get their hands on, such as small laser rangefinders and cruise missile guidance sections.
The researchers, invited by the Ukrainian security service to independently analyze advanced Russian equipment, found that almost all of them included parts from companies based in the United States and the European Union: microchips, circuit boards, motors, antennas and other equipment.
“Advanced Russian weaponry and communications systems were built around Western chips,” said Damien Spleeters, one of the investigators at Conflict Armament Research, which identifies and tracks weapons and ammunition. He added that Russian companies had access to a “constant supply” of Western technology for decades.
US officials have long prided themselves on the country’s ability to provide technology and munitions to the rest of the world. But since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, the US has faced a sad reality: the tools Russian forces are using in warfare are often powered by American innovations.
Still, while technology created by American and European companies was used against Ukraine, the situation also gave the United States and its allies an important source of influence against Russia.
The United States and dozens of other countries have used export bans to cut off shipments of advanced technology, undermining Russia’s ability to produce weapons to replace those destroyed in the war, according to US and European officials.
On Thursday, the administration of President Joe Biden announced more sanctions and restrictions on Russia and Belarus, adding 71 organizations to an official list that prevents them from buying advanced technology. The Treasury Department also announced sanctions against a yacht management company that works for Russian oligarchs.
While some analysts cautioned against hasty conclusions, saying the measures would take time to take full effect, the Biden administration called them a success.
Since Western allies announced extensive export restrictions on semiconductors, computers, lasers, telecommunications equipment and other goods in February, Russia has struggled to obtain microchips to replenish its supply of precision-guided munitions, according to a US official. USA, who, along with most of the others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity because it deals with intelligence-based matters.
On Tuesday, May 31, when asked whether the chip shortage was hurting the Russian military, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, who oversees export controls, said the answer was an “unconditional yes.”
“US exports to Russia in categories where we have export controls, including semiconductors, have dropped by more than 90% since Feb. 24,” she said. “This is paralyzing.”
The restrictions halt direct technology exports from the United States and dozens of partner nations to Russia. But they also go beyond traditional Washington-issued war sanctions, imposing limitations on high-tech goods that are manufactured anywhere in the world using American machines, software or designs. That means countries not in the sanctions coalition with the United States and Europe must also play by the rules or potentially face their own sanctions.
Russia has stopped publishing monthly trade data since the invasion, but customs data from its main trading partners show that shipments of essential parts and components have declined sharply. According to data compiled by Matthew C. Klein, an economic researcher who tracks the effect of export controls, Russian imports of manufactured goods from nine major economies for which data are available fell 51% in April, compared with the average for September to February.
Russia is one of the biggest arms exporters in the world, especially to India, but its industry is heavily dependent on imported inputs. In 2018, Russian sources serviced only about half of the military equipment and services the country needed, such as transportation equipment, computers, optical equipment, machinery, fabricated metals and other goods, according to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development compiled by Klein.
The rest of the equipment and services used by Russia were imported, with about a third coming from the United States, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, Australia and other partner governments that imposed joint sanctions on Moscow.
US officials say that, along with a wide variety of other sanctions that prohibit or discourage trade relations, export controls have been highly effective. They pointed to Russian tank factories that laid off workers and struggled with parts shortages. The Biden administration has also received reports that the Russian military is struggling to find parts for satellites, avionics and night vision goggles, officials say.
Technological restrictions have also hurt other Russian industries, according to US officials. Equipment for the oil and gas industry was degraded; maintenance on tractors and heavy equipment manufactured by Caterpillar and John Deere was discontinued; and up to 70% of commercial planes operated by Russian airlines, which no longer receive replacement and maintenance parts from Airbus and Boeing, are grounded, officials say.
But some experts issued notes of caution. Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Va., expressed skepticism about some claims that export controls were forcing the closure of some tank factories and other defense companies in Russia.
“There is not much evidence to substantiate reports of problems in Russia’s defense sector,” Kofman said. It’s still too early in the war to expect significant supply chain problems in the Russian defense industry, he said, and the source of these early claims is unclear.
US officials say the Russian government and companies in the country are looking for ways to circumvent controls, but have so far been unsuccessful. The Biden administration has threatened to penalize any company that helps Russia escape sanctions by cutting it off from accessing US technology.
In an interview last month, Raimondo said the United States was not seeing any systematic circumvention of export controls by any country, including China, which sided with Russia before and during the invasion of Ukraine. Companies were making independent decisions not to engage with Russia, despite the country “trying very hard to circumvent” the global coalition of allies that imposed export controls, Raimondo said.
“The world knows how serious we are, and so do our allies, in prosecuting any violation,” she said. “There will be real consequences for any companies or countries that try to circumvent export controls.”
Chinese trade data also suggests most companies are following the restrictions. While China continues to buy Russian energy, Chinese exports to the country have dropped dramatically since the invasion.
But Spleeters said the Russian military has used creative methods to circumvent previous restrictions on technology imports — such as buying foreign products through shell companies, third-party countries or civilian distributors — and may use the same methods to circumvent sanctions.
Spleeters’ research revealed efforts by some actors to disguise the presence of Western technology in Russian equipment. During their trip to Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, Spleeters and his colleague unscrewed three cases of advanced encrypted Azart radios, which provide secure communication channels for Russian forces.
They found that the first two contained microchips with parts of their manufacturing marks carefully erased, apparently in an effort to disguise their origin. But inside the third radio was an identical chip that escaped Russian censors, showing that it had been made by a US-based company. (Spleeters said his group would not release the names of manufacturers until he sent inquiries to each company asking how their products ended up in the hands of the Russian military.)
Spleeters said it was unclear who altered the markings or when the chips were delivered to Russia, but that the attempt to mask their origin was intentional. In 2014, after the Russian invasion of Crimea, the United States imposed largely unilateral restrictions on the shipment of high-tech items that could help Russian military capabilities.
“It was carefully erased, perhaps with a tool to take just one line of the markings,” Spleeters said. “Someone knew exactly what they were doing.”
