Under a heat wave, the population of France goes to the polls this Sunday (19), in the second round of the legislative elections, with projections indicating that this could be the second time in the history of the 5th French Republic, which began in 1958, in which the Abstention rate surpasses half of voters in the final round for Parliament.
The Ipsos institute, based on the projection of participation at 17:00 (12:00 in BrasÃlia), calculates that 54% should abstain from participating in the vote – in the first round, this rate was 52.5%. So far, the record for abstention for the final round was set in 2017, with 57.4%.
Until 5 pm, information compiled by the newspaper Le Monde shows, participation in the current round reached 38.1%, a drop compared to last Sunday, when 39.4% had already voted at this time. The number, however, exceeds that recorded five years ago, in the late afternoon, when only 35.3% had turned up at the polls.
The current election is decisive for centrist president Emmanuel Macron, who was re-elected in April, when he defeated the far-right at the polls. If he does not obtain a parliamentary majority – it would be necessary to win 289 seats – he would see the scenario for the approval of projects he is seeking, such as the change in the retirement age, to get complicated.
Polls predict that Macron’s camp will end up with the most seats, but perhaps not the majority it craves. This scenario would open a period of uncertainty, which could culminate in an unprecedented power-sharing in France, or else in political paralysis.
The surveys also point out that the far-right could see its biggest parliamentary success in decades, while the broad alliance of left-wing parties Nova União Popular Ecológica e Social (Nupes) could become the biggest opposition group.
Macron and his support base have been putting into practice an alarmist speech that, without majority support in Parliament, there would be an unprecedented institutional crisis. Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire, a supporter of the president, argued in an interview with a local channel last week that “a relative majority would force us into interminable negotiations, it would be a waste of time”.
There have been only two cases in recent French history in which the absolute majority was not formed around the leader: with General de Gaulle (1958-1962) and with François Mitterrand (1988-1991). But experts say this has not paralyzed the Executive’s action.
In the first round of the legislative elections, Juntos, a center-right coalition around Macron, was practically tied with Nupes. Each group got around 5.8 million votes, with an advantage of just 21,285 for the president’s bloc.
