“Russia’s harsh winter stopped Napoleon,” states political scientist Ivan Krastev, explaining that Russia’s harsh winter stopped Hitler in 1941 and now Putin’s idea is to make this winter harsh throughout Europe.
The possibility of a shortage of natural gas and fears about the economy on the sidelines of the war in Ukraine are, according to Politico, “weapons” in the quiver of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
As he specifically mentions in his extensive dedication, Vladimir Putin seems ready to use food, fuel and fertilizers as weapons of war against the West that is arming Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Moscow.
“Russia’s harsh winter stopped Napoleon,” states political scientist Ivan Krastev, explaining that Russia’s harsh winter stopped Hitler in 1941 and now Putin’s idea is to make this winter harsh throughout Europe.
As a colossal exporter of food, fertilizer, oil and natural gas, Russia’s influence on the European economy is expected to become even more pronounced when temperatures drop this coming winter.
Most experts estimate that the longer the war drags on, the more pressure governments will receive from voters who have been deeply affected by rising food prices, the energy crisis and economic hardship.
Hunger plan
As for food, prices rose sharply after Russia blocked Ukraine, a major supplier of grain and sunflower oil. And the worst could be yet to come if the price of fertilizers, linked to the cost of natural gas, remains high in the coming seasons.
Global agricultural prices have risen 30% since Russia’s invasion, with food and soft drink price inflation hovering at 10% in May, according to an EU market report cited by Politico.
Higher fertilizer costs mean that farmers around the world will use them sparingly and therefore produce lower amounts, potentially escalating a crisis into a supply emergency.
As a net food exporter, Europe is better insulated from poorer countries in Africa and the Middle East, where governments are more dependent on Russian and Ukrainian imports of staples such as wheat, and consumers spend a much larger percentage of their wages on stay fed.
“I certainly wouldn’t predict starvation in Europe, but certainly prices could rise even further,” said John Baffes, senior economist at the World Bank.
The worst-case scenario, according to Politico, from a European perspective is if the food crisis triggers a new wave of mass migration, putting further pressure on political systems. Analysts, including the head of the World Food Programme, David Beasley, have drawn parallels between now and the bread price riots that preceded the 2011 Arab Spring.
“Putin’s hunger plan is intended to create refugees from North Africa and the Middle East, areas normally fed by Ukraine,” Yale historian Timothy Snyder wrote earlier this month. “This would destabilize the EU.”
Politico summarizes its feature by asking to what extent European governments are prepared to withstand a Russian economic onslaught.
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