The West is looking increasingly closely at the growing economic cooperation between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, warning of the risk that the NATO member country could face retaliation if it helps Moscow circumvent sanctions.
Six Western representatives expressed concern to the Financial Times over the promise made on Friday (5) by the two leaders, after a four-hour meeting in Sochi, to expand cooperation between their countries in the areas of trade and energy.
An EU official said the 27-nation bloc was “increasingly closely” monitoring cooperation between Turkey and Russia, fearing Ankara was consolidating itself as a platform for trade with Moscow.
Another official described Turkey’s behavior as very opportunistic, adding that the bloc was trying to get the Turks to “listen to concerns”.
Washington has repeatedly warned that it will punish countries that help Russia circumvent sanctions with “secondary sanctions” aimed at violations that fall outside the country’s legal jurisdiction. The EU, however, has been hesitant to do the same. US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo met with Turkish officials and bankers in June to recommend that they not become a conduit for the circulation of illicit Russian money.
A senior Western official suggested that countries could recommend their companies and banks to leave Turkey if Erdogan fulfills the commitments he set out on Friday. If carried out, the highly unusual threat against another NATO member could cripple Turkey’s $800 billion economy.
For now, the suggestion has been dismissed by several Western representatives, who questioned how such a punishment would work in practical and legal terms — and whether it would even be a good idea. Turkey is deeply integrated into the Western financial system. Companies ranging from Coca-Cola and Ford to Bosch and BP have long-standing operations in the country and, in many cases, are highly profitable.
A European official cited significant economic interests but stressed that he did not rule out the possibility of negative action if Ankara gets too close to Russia.
While acknowledging that a formal EU decision on imposing sanctions on Turkey would be difficult given the existing divisions in the bloc, this representative suggested that some members could take actions – such as limitations on public funding and local businesses.
Three officials said there had still been no official discussions in Brussels about possible repercussions for Turkey, and others noted that the details of the discussions in Sochi were still unclear.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Erdogan has taken what he describes as a “balanced” approach between Kiev and Moscow. On Friday, the leader’s face-to-face meeting with Putin ended with a joint pledge to increase the volume of bilateral trade and deepen economic and energy ties.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Moscow’s top energy official, told reporters, according to Interfax, that Turkey had agreed to start paying for Russian gas in rubles. The presidents reportedly also discussed deepening banking ties and paying debts in rubles and Turkish lira.
On his plane on the return trip, Erdogan said there had also been “very consistent advances” in using Moscow’s MIR payment card system, which allows Russians in Turkey to pay their expenses by card, at a time when Visa and Mastercard suspended operations in Russia. Western officials fear the system could be used to circumvent sanctions.
Diplomatic relations between Ankara and the West are already strained. Washington imposed sanctions in 2020 in retaliation for Moscow’s acquisition of an S-400 air defense system, but they targeted the defense industry, not the country’s economy as a whole.
Erdogan, who has repeatedly threatened to veto Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership, is seen in many Western capitals as an increasingly unreliable ally. But Turkey is a vital partner for Europe in the areas of counterterrorism and migration. The country is home to 3.7 million Syrians as part of an agreement reached with the EU in 2016.
The Ukrainian War underscored the importance of Turkey’s strategic location, controlling access to the straits linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. Erdogan also played a key role in the grain export deal signed by Russia and Ukraine last month, which aims to avert a global food crisis.
