Europe has a sadder face. Not necessarily prettier. The Ukrainian War sentimentally shifted the emphasis of its structure from the European Union, based on peace and progress, to NATO, which has its soul in defense and armed conflict.
Furthermore, France and Germany ceased to see Russia as a partner that post-communism would reintegrate into a climate of respect and understanding. This is basically what four experts of great theoretical caliber believe, gathered in a podcast this September by the public radio station France Culture.
A point on which everyone agrees: the war will last longer than imagined, until a kind of political paradox is resolved, summarized by Claudia Major, director of the international security unit at the Berlin-based think tank SWP. “Ukraine cannot be defeated, and Russia must not win,” she says.
“Everything is more likely to indicate that peace could be bad for Ukrainians,” says Alexander Stubb, former prime minister of Finland and now director of the European University Institute in Florence.
Let’s look at the strongest points of agreement among the guests. Starting with the relative strengthening of the Ukrainian military, since, in June, its military began to operate heavier artillery equipment. The main result was the stagnation of the Russian advance and the possibility of Ukraine repossessing part of the territories – Russia even captured 20% of its neighbor.
In this process there is, among others, the British military aid, which is in the long term of € 6.5 billion, and that of Poland, which delivered 200 armored vehicles to the Kiev government. Warsaw tends to be a stronger partner, given the €15 billion contract it signed for South Korean arms.
Strategist François Heisbourg, adviser to the IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies), says that President Joe Biden’s initial inability made Russian Vladimir Putin’s job easier. If he was counting on invading Ukraine, the logic of deterrence assumed the fear of having to fight American soldiers on the border.
But lo and behold, Biden reiterated that he would not send fighters. In doing so, he reassured his electorate, but also the Russian General Staff – who were not deterred from committing their atrocities. The logic that had prevailed between Russia and the US since the Cold War was broken.
The fourth and final guest was Robin Niblett, former director of the prestigious British think tank Chatham House. He deals with symbology when discussing the true size of the war. For Europeans the conflict is between Russia and Ukraine, but for Moscow it is all of Europe that is engaged on the side of its circumstantial enemy.
Niblett points out that the British needed no greater effort to position the Russians as enemies. It was a natural reaction for a country that had been loyal to NATO and the US for decades. In a way, with the war, Europe walked towards the position of the United Kingdom.
This move took place most drastically with Germany. Claudia Major points out the turnaround that Ukraine has caused in German defense policy, to the point that the Constitution was modified this year to allow for a degree of rearmament that had not been allowed since 1945 to be exceeded.
Berlin has set aside a budget of €100 billion to build a war machine with a comprehensive profile, without necessarily relying on US weapons and military personnel stationed in Europe. It’s a remarkable turn of events, which the German government calls an “epoch-changer”.
It is clear that Europeans are concerned about the lack of Russian gas during the winter that is starting soon in the Northern Hemisphere. At the same time, however, says Britain’s Niblett, “the boycott of Russia is a direct way for us to no longer have to live with the energy raw material it exports to us.”
By the way, Russia is not hungry for not selling its gas to the Europeans. It has other markets in Asia to diversify into. The most emblematic case is that of India.
And China? It will continue, opportunistically, to position itself as an ally of Putin. But not unconditionally. The Chinese, the strategists on the podcast believe, will pull the string until such time as they realize they may face some sort of retaliation from Europe. With all the care and subtlety, they will move away from Moscow so as not to lose the advantages offered by the powerful European internal market.
With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
