Bloomberg: How likely is an energy “blackout” in Europe and why the weather plays a role – “key”

“It’s December. The temperature is at low levels. Households need to warm up, cook, do laundry, watch TV. But the electricity grid operator is having trouble keeping the switches “open”.

The utility means a “red” alert, which indicates that energy supplies are at their limits. Supply has already been cut to some large industrial users, while households have received an urgent request to reduce their electricity use. The provider, however, needs to take even more drastic measures, cutting off electricity in certain areas, in order to avoid a total collapse of the system.”

Bloomberg refers to the dramatic scenario of an energy “blackout” in Europe.

“The reality is that there is not enough gas in Europe,” says Ed Birkett, head of energy at British think tank Onward, stressing that if demand is not curbed, businesses will be forced off the grid.

He even emphasizes that the extreme scenario is the same for households.”

In any case, the article emphasizes that much will depend on what the weather conditions will be like in the near future, as changes in temperature undoubtedly have a catalytic effect on citizens’ energy needs.

“If we have a real hard winter, then that will have a dramatic impact on the grid,” warns Adam Bell, a consultant who previously worked for the UK Department of Energy and Business.

“The more reductions we see – especially in the summer – in gas consumption, the less likely Europe will face the risk of blackouts,” Goldman Sachs estimates in a note.

“The message of reducing consumption has not been taken seriously so far. A walk in the cities is enough to see that the supermarkets keep the lights on at night, even though they are closed”, emphasizes Simone Tagliapietra, analyst of the think tank Bruegel.

There are many previous incidents. The grid in Texas went down during the dead of winter last year, leaving millions of consumers in the dark for days, while California also came close to experiencing a widespread blackout this month during a heat wave.

South Africa has experienced rolling blackouts mainly due to the chronic neglect of network maintenance and meager investment in it with citizens suffering from the paralysis of appliances (washing machines, ovens, etc.), the wi-fi network and red lights between others.

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