After a tragic decade, the Honduran people have categorically expressed their desire to begin a rebuilding of the regime, the party system and its government. The significant victory of an opposition centre-left alliance, led by a woman, came to reverse the pronounced democratic erosion and virtual autocratization seen in the Central American country since the irregular interruption of Manuel Zelaya’s term in 2009.
Although in the last decade numerous studies and specialized centers on the quality of democracy have warned about the serious situation, in the last three years Honduras has ceased to be considered a democratic country and has come to be considered a hybrid regime or an example of Electoral Authoritarianism. The diagnosis of centers such as Varieties of Democracy, Idea International, Barómetro de las Américas and Latinobarómetro pointed to a virtual capture of the State by a group of individuals directly or indirectly linked to President Juan Orlando Hernández and his immediate surroundings.
Among those identified are segments of the business community, the Armed Forces and the police, the political class, the judiciary, religious groups, mainly evangelicals and Catholics, and the media, as well as a high and growing influence of non-state actors linked to illicit activities transnational corporations. In this context, there was no lack of cases of impunity, corruption scandals –committed even in the midst of the pandemic–, political and social violence, impoverishment, social exclusion, socio-environmental conflicts and decreasing citizen support for democracy.
In this sense, in the recent elections, more than the usual legitimacy and competition between left, center and right, two systems were in dispute: electoral authoritarianism and liberal democracy.
Electoral responsibility, participation and political competition
In recent elections, which in Honduras are decided by a simple majority and where there is no second round, just over five million citizens were called. Candidate Iris Xiomara Castro Sarmiento, of the Libertad y Refundación-Libre party, won with about 53% of the valid votes, making her the most voted president in the country’s history. The ruling National Party candidate, Nasry Asfura, would have been in second place with 34% and Liberal, Yani Rosenthal, in third with 9%.
Castro, who leads an opposition alliance with strong Social Democratic, Republican and progressive leanings, was first lady during Manuel Zelaya’s term. But on her own merits, she was chosen as presidential candidate in 2013 and as vice-presidential candidate in 2017. On both occasions she was defeated by current president Juan Orlando Hernández, in elections plagued by all kinds of irregularities, such as fraud, illicit campaign financing and abuse of political and economic power.
In 200 years of republican life, Xiomara Castro will be the first woman to govern Honduras and, in this way, she joins the small group of women who preside over governments around the world. Over the past decades, she has shown sensitivity to gender issues and demands, especially linked to women’s reproductive rights, and has been linked to civil society, social movements –including environmentalism– and issues related to childhood, the youth and families, ethnic minorities and the most vulnerable sectors of Honduran society. This is obviously good news.
In this context, the high vote in Castro is explained, in part, by the very high electoral participation of youth and other subordinate social segments. This meant that participation was above 68%, with abstention dropping from 45% to around 30%. Therefore, it seems reasonable to expect from the next government a strong commitment to the formulation and implementation of public policies aimed at human development, productive transformation with equity, and sovereign international insertion.
Party System Transformation
The defeat and overcoming of traditional bipartisanship is another novelty of this election. Leaving aside the military governments that prevailed in the 1960s and 1970s, since the late 19th century Honduras had basically been governed by a two-party system where candidacies from the center-right reformist Liberal Party and the conservative right-wing National Party predominated.
For the first time, another party (Libertad y Refundación-Libre) gained political power, which restructured the composition of the parliament and the main local governments that play an important role in the political-social dynamics of the country. This is partly due to a set of political agreements reached between Libre and other center and even center-right parties in the so-called Unión Nacional Oppositora de Honduras (UNOH).
In this way, the political future, governability and the reconstruction of the democratic quality of the country will be marked by coalition presidentialism. And keeping this multi-party alliance together, both within the government cabinet and in Executive-Legislative relations, will demand a high dose of realism, tolerance, dialogue and responsibility within the emerging ruling class.
The same could be said in relation to the composition of the authorities of the Judiciary, since the members of the Supreme Court of Justice and the Attorney General of the Republic are appointed by Congress for terms of seven and five years, respectively.
In January 2022, Xiomara Castro will assume a government with great political capital, but after a tragic decade, the challenge of refounding Honduran democracy is immense. The majority hope that this mandate will be successful, consistent, honest and republican, and that it will usher in a period of prosperity, peace and development for Honduras. Then, and only then, will we be able to claim that the force of argument has finally won the argument of force in the Central American country.
*Translation from Spanish by Maria Isabel Santos Lima
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