One in five voters of Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Simone Tebet (MDB) admits to changing their vote to support whoever is ahead in the presidential race on October 2nd — that is, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).
This is what Datafolha measured in a new round of survey on the mood of the electorate, carried out from Tuesday (20) to Thursday (22). The leader in the poll, Lula, added up to 47% of the total voting intentions, compared to 33% for his main opponent, President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) – with a margin of error of two percentage points, more or less.
More importantly for the PT, he again hit 50% of valid votes, the metric that excludes blanks and nulls used for the official count of the result. If it has that plus a single vote, it wins without the need for the final round on October 30th.
Thus, he has focused his campaign on the final stretch precisely on the useful vote of candidates tied for third place, the senator from Mato Grosso do Sul and the pedestrian. By turning over a decent amount of those votes, he can finish the campaign on day 2.
According to Datafolha, it is precisely the voters of these two candidates who most admit the useful vote — in general, 11% say it is possible to do so. Among Ciro’s voters, it’s 21%; among those from Tebet, 22%.
Already 6% of Bolsonaro voters admit the change, while 11% of Lulas do. The specific margin of error in these cases is 5 points for the voters of Ciro and Tebet and 2 points for those of Lula and Bolsonaro.
It does not seem to be such a simple process for the PT: when asked who they will support in an eventual second round, cirist voters seem to have disapproved of the harassment. In one week, the share of them who say they vote for Lula against Bolsonaro in this scenario went from 51% to 43%. Among Tebet supporters, the PT vote in the second round fluctuated to 42%.
Ciro has shown enormous opposition to the movement, and Lula responded by saying that his former minister was “freaking out”. Tebet also complains, but in a more measured way.
The PT, who last week tried to condense the idea that he leads a broad front against Bolsonarism by bringing together eight former presidential candidates in a support event, and has ex-rival Geraldo Alckmin (toucan who migrated to the PSB) as his deputy. , says he will insist on killing the bill.
The Datafolha survey, commissioned by Sheet and by TV Globo, heard 6,754 voters in 343 cities. It was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under the number BR-04108/2022.
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