NATO, a military alliance led by the United States, started its annual exercise on simulation of nuclear attacks in Europe on Monday (17). Russia is expected to begin its version of the maneuver before the Western action ends.
This has happened before, but never with an active conflict on the mainland, initiated by Russia when it invaded Ukraine on February 24.
“By refusing to postpone or cancel Steadfast Noon (noon firmly, exercise code), NATO can unintentionally create the impression that both sides are swinging their nuclear swords in the midst of a major war.” , said in an article Hans Kristensen, one of the greatest experts on nuclear weapons on the planet.
“This could undermine the ability to stigmatize Russia’s irresponsible nuclear behavior,” said he, who directs the nuclear information project at the prestigious Federation of American Scientists.
Since the eve of the war, President Vladimir Putin has been using the nuclear card: he carried out a strategic weapons exercise a few days before the invasion and, when the conflict started, he threatened any countries that interfered in his action by suggesting the use of the bomb.
From time to time, officials in his government reminded the world of the risks of a Third World War due to the West’s support for Kiev. On 30 September, when he signed the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, Putin suggested that he would defend them “with all possible means”. His ally Dmitri Medvedev, president from 2008 to 2012, cited atomic means explicitly.
At the beginning of the war, the US even canceled the test of an intercontinental missile to avoid provoking the Kremlin, but later launched four at once. Now, NATO has kept the Steadfast Noon even though it knows it will have to coincide with the 2022 edition of Grom (thunder, in Russian).
They are exercises of a different nature. At Steadfast Noon, 60 planes from 14 countries will participate in the simulation of nuclear attacks that are intended to be tactical, that is, with less powerful bombs aimed at stopping opposing forces, but not obliterating cities.
That, at least, is what is intuited, since the precise data is secret. A group of B-52 strategic bombers was sent to the Belgian base of Kleine Brogel, one of six where the US stores B61 tactical bombs in Europe — the others are in Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Turkey.
The exercises will take place there, in the UK and over the North Sea. Support aircraft from countries that do not have their own or US nuclear weapons on the ground also participate, as well as fighter jets capable of dropping such bombs. No real warheads are carried.
Grom, on the other hand, resumed in 2019, has a broader character as it simulates the use of strategic weapons, those that aim to win wars by destroying cities and industrial areas. NATO said it hopes that this year there will again be the launch of at least one intercontinental missile, in addition to the involvement of submarines and bombers.
That all this happens while Russia is in action against Western-equipped forces in Ukraine involves risks. In 1983, the world almost went to war because the Soviet Union was convinced that a series of NATO exercises in Europe was the prelude to a real attack. Washington and Moscow control 90% of the world’s atomic arsenals.
The Steadfast Noon runs until the 30th, and the Grom has not had a date officially announced – NATO believes it will start until the beginning of next week. The situation has caused unrest in China, Putin’s main ally. The China Daily, the largest English-language newspaper published by the Communist Party, criticized the Western exercise in an editorial, calling it “highly irresponsible”.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry has asked all its Chinese citizens to leave Ukraine due to heightened tensions, which has led to speculation on social media about Beijing’s possible knowledge of any Putin plan to employ nuclear weapons.
The Russian invaded Ukraine 20 days after a historic meeting with leader Xi Jinping, in which they publicly forged a strategic partnership that was already taking shape in practice.
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