Bolsonaro made Brazil lose relevance, and Lula opens doors with the US, says analyst

The victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and his scheduled return to the presidency open an opportunity for Brazil to regain the relevance lost during the government of Jair Bolsonaro (PL), defends Nick Zimmerman, former director for Brazil and Cone Sul in National Security Council of the White House during the Barack Obama administration – of which the current president, Joe Biden, was deputy.

Global advisor to the Wilson Center think tank, Zimmerman tells Sheet that Bolsonaro’s constant attacks on the electoral system — including that of the US — hampered cooperation between the two countries. “If your trading partner makes it very clear that they don’t want to work with you on substantive issues and you’re the president of the US, you don’t have time to waste; move on to the next one.”

What changes in the Brazil-US relationship with Lula back in power? There will be new challenges and opportunities. The first great example is environmental policy, with policies on sustainability, conservation and multilateral climate negotiations.

Some people who might get involved with climate diplomacy, like Izabella Teixeira [ministra do Meio Ambiente de 2010 a 2016], one of the heads of the Paris Agreement, are extremely respected, not only in Washington. This will be a very big difference compared to former minister Ricardo Salles.

It is also an opportunity in relation to democracy, the response to the processes of democratic erosion and how to respond to what the continent has been going through in recent years, with a pandemic, global crisis and inflation. How do governments work to promote an equitable recovery in the difficult global context? How can democracy deliver better results to those most in need? These are areas that will have a lot of potential.

The fact that Bolsonaro has consistently baselessly attacked the Brazilian electoral process has made it very difficult to make substantial progress on any issue, because protecting democracy is one of the main points of the Biden administration. It is a government that has gone through a very traumatic transition process [com a invasão do Capitólio].

And what are the challenges? In the area of ​​commerce, during the Bolsonaro administration, there were high-level discussions regarding Brazil’s efforts to become a member of the OECD. The US government considers initiatives like this good for trade relations and has encouraged it. Now, I believe there will be less emphasis on trying to ease tariffs for bilateral trade.

There will also be challenges in foreign policy. There is turmoil in matters such as Ukraine, about which he has made troubling remarks that go beyond the bounds of false equivalence, blaming so much [Volodimir] Zelensky how much [Vladimir] Putin for the war. And when we talk about one of the biggest countries in the world, these are complicated comments.

But that’s normal, it’s diplomacy, not always the interests of two great democracies are going to be aligned, and it’s important that the US understands that. The potential for the relationship is high, but it will largely depend on which team Lula forms, whether she is willing to get more involved with the US. This is still not 100% clear.

Brazil also does not currently occupy such an important place in American foreign policy. I don’t know if I agree. I hear that the US hasn’t cared about Brazil ever since. I recognize that the Biden administration’s foreign policy is focused on other issues, we are in a tumultuous time also in the domestic environment, there is Ukraine, inflation, the increase in food insecurity.

But if there is a decline in Brazil’s importance to Washington, the main blame for this is Bolsonaro’s. Of his lies in his direct and conscious effort to politicize the relationship and question our democratic process by campaigning for the reelection of [Donald] Trump and take weeks to recognize the election. There were also multiple crises in the environmental area.

If your trading partner makes it very clear that they don’t want to work with you on substantive matters, and you’re the president of the US, you don’t have time to waste; jump to the next. This is not a reflection of Brazil’s loss of importance, it is the result of what was possible to do. Bolsonaro was very damaging to bilateral relations.

How did the Obama administration, of which Biden was vice president, see Lula? The US recognized that Brazil was an influential player, with growing prestige, and that it was making significant progress globally in socio-economic policies, poverty reduction, and the containment of deforestation in the Amazon. But there was also frustration with this ideological approach to foreign policy — which in rhetoric advocated strengthening a multipolar world, but often in practice was un-American.

Biden spoke less than an hour after the result was announced by the TSE. Is there relief in the White House? The Biden administration is interested in democracy. The US has always been consistent in this regard. And, frankly, there is also admiration for the logistics of the presidential election. US elections, procedurally, are a mess. The US has repeatedly expressed confidence in the Brazilian electoral process. It was a mere recognition to congratulate a sister nation.

X-RAY | Nick Zimmerman

He was former director for Brazil and the Southern Cone at the White House National Security Council during the Barack Obama administration and is currently a global advisor to the Wilson Center think tank.