Understand the midterms, the midterm elections in the US

The US will hold on Tuesday (8) the midterm legislative elections, the so-called midterms, which renew the House and part of the Senate, in addition to a series of governors and local legislatures across the country.

The dispute will define the second half of the Joe Biden administration and could impact the 2024 presidential election.

Understand what midterms are and what is at stake.

What are midterms?

Midterms are called the elections that occur, as the name implies, in the middle of the presidential term in the United States and that elect the federal legislature and local offices.

These elections elect names for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, where deputies serve two-year terms, and 35 of the 100 senators, who will serve six-year terms.

Why are midterms important?

The federal dispute is important because it defines whether the president of the country will have support in the Legislature to approve its agendas. With a comfortable majority in the House and Senate, the president can sign up for even more controversial projects, such as issues related to guns or abortion.

If he has a narrow majority, as is the case with Biden in the Senate today, any dissent could stall projects. That’s what happened to the current president when a single senator, Joe Manchin, from the same Democratic Party, put a stop to the “Build Back Better” mega-project for months.

If it doesn’t have a majority, Congress has the power to block the president’s agenda, who will need to make concessions. At the limit, a legislature with an opposition majority can even approve an impeachment.

It is not uncommon for presidents to be elected with a majority in both houses, as was the case with Biden, and lose that advantage in the midterms. This happened at some point in the terms of every president since Bill Clinton: George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump.

What is the midterms landscape today?

Midterms are considered a good barometer of the popular evaluation of the president in office. The scenario is not favorable for Biden, who has 40% approval, according to the Gallup Institute, which also points out that 79% of Americans say they are dissatisfied with the country’s direction.

Polls show that Republicans should win a majority in the House – on Tuesday (1st), FiveThirtyEight, a website specializing in statistics, indicated that they have an 83% chance of taking control of the House. The size of the bench varies according to the poll, but in the best case scenario the opposition should secure up to 247 of the 435 seats – with 218 seats the party already has a majority.

The Senate race is more undefined, with a tendency also for the Republican Party, which could win 51 seats, estimates the survey aggregator FiveThirtyEight a few days before the election.

What should change if Republicans win a majority in Congress?

The most immediate impact will be to stall the Biden administration’s agenda on issues dear to Democrats, such as the climate agenda, easier access to abortion and tighter gun control.

The expectation in Washington is also that Republicans will install investigative commissions, such as the one investigating the January 6, 2021, attack on Capitol Hill, to advance against Democrats.

Among the possible findings would be the process of withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan or an alleged political use of the Department of Justice in cases against Trump. The opening of an impeachment action against Biden is also being considered. The Senate is also responsible for approving government appointments for a number of positions, which would be compromised.

What are the key states to keep an eye on in midterms?

Four states have the most indefinite race and can set control of the Senate starting in 2023.

One of the most important disputes is in Pennsylvania, where the Democratic candidate, John Fetterman, reached a 12-point lead over his Republican rival, TV presenter Mehmet Oz.

Today, however, he appears with only one percentage point ahead. Therefore, Biden, Obama and other medallions have been involved in the dispute, since the current seat is occupied by the Republican Pat Toomey.

Another tight race is in Georgia, where former GOP nominee Herschel Walker managed to turn the race in the final stretch and now has a chance to steal the seat from incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock, candidate for reelection. .

In Nevada, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, who is also running for reelection, and Republican Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general, have been less than 1 point apart for weeks.

Finally, in Arizona, astronaut and current Democratic senator Mark Kelly fights Joe Biden’s unpopularity in the state to be re-elected in the race against Trumpist businessman Blake Masters. Also noteworthy is the fact that, a few weeks ago, the Republican was more than 10 percentage points behind the Democrat, but he has gained strength and gets closer with each new poll – today he is 3 points behind.

Other Senate races to watch out for: New Hampshire, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio.

What matters most to voters?

If the Democrats have any chance of retaining control of the Senate, it can be attributed to the abortion issue. Polls in June showed that the defeat of Biden’s party could be an earth-shattering one.

That month, however, the Supreme Court reversed a decision and ruled that the termination of pregnancy is not a constitutional right. From there, an unexpected movement drew attention: candidates defending the right to abortion gained traction, even in more conservative states.

In addition to abortion, another central issue is record inflation, which in the 12-month period reaches 8.2%. The index is even higher for specific categories: 11.2% for food inflation and 19.8% for energy.

There are also the traditional themes of American politics, such as immigration and gun violence.

How are midterms on the state scene?

At the local level, the election is much more complex, and in practice there are many elections taking place, because each state has its rules and there is no electoral authority that defines how the dispute will be throughout the country.

On November 8, for example, there will be governor elections in 36 of the 50 US states. Another 14 have different calendars — Virginia, for example, elected its governor last year.

Furthermore, even at the state level, the positions at stake vary from state to state. In 17 of them, there are separate elections for lieutenant governor—in most locations, the vice is elected along with the governor, and in Tennessee and West Virginia a member of the state Senate is chosen lieutenant governor.

There are 30 states that also elect the attorney general and 27 that select secretaries of state, whose roles vary but are generally responsible for organizing the rules of elections.

What are the key states to keep an eye on in local elections?

One of the most interesting races in the country today takes place in Georgia, where Democrat Stacey Abrams faces Republican and current governor Brian Kemp. The race draws attention for a number of factors. Abrams is one of the biggest activists for expanding access to the vote for minorities and considered one of those responsible for Biden’s victory in the state in 2020 – crucial for his election to the presidency.

In addition, in 2018, Abrams and Kemp ran for governor, and the Republican won with 50.2% of the votes, a difference of 0.4% for Abrams. In 2020, he came under fire from Trump for ignoring calls against certifying Biden’s victory. This year, he avoided the topic to avoid losing Trump voters.

Another election that draws attention is that of Michigan, where the current governor, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer, is running for governor with the ultraconservative political commentator Tudor Dixon. There will also be a referendum on abortion, which will help to gauge popular approval on the subject.

Also in Michigan, voters will also choose the local secretary of state. Republican candidate Kristina Kamaro has already backed Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was rigged — if she wins, she could change the state’s electoral rules, which could influence the presidential race.

Why do US elections take place on Tuesdays?

American electoral law has established, since 1845, that the election for federal offices takes place “on the Tuesday following the first Monday of November”, which this year means that the election will be on the 8th.

The definition goes back to the traditions of an agrarian society in the 19th century. As to vote it was necessary to travel to the county seat, which could take a day to travel, Tuesday was established so that voters would not miss Mass. Sunday. November was chosen because it is a period between the end of the harvest and before winter in the Northern Hemisphere, where storms make travel difficult.

Today the definition sounds out of place, and there are a number of questions about keeping the claim on a business day. For this, some alternatives were implemented, such as early voting or voting by mail, allowed in almost all states of the country. So even the expression “election day” today isn’t exactly accurate, as polls are open for weeks across the US.