Turkey: 20 years since Erdogan came to power – Is his fall coming?

Rampant inflation, high unemployment, huge public debt and corruption. In addition, resignations in the government and the illness of the then 77-year-old Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit. In 2002 Turkey was in the grip of one of the worst economic and political crises in its history. New elections were called and the people punished the established parties on 3 November. Only two parties entered parliament. The winner of the elections was the still inexperienced AKP, the Justice and Development Party founded only a year earlier, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

On November 3, 2002 he got an absolute majority starting from zero. It captured 363 of the 550 seats in parliament, and since then the AKP has won every parliamentary election in Turkey.

The AKP pledged to respect the different ways of life of all citizens, pursue a program of constitutional reforms that would promote democracy and also promote Turkey’s EU membership. Equality, justice and prosperity were the pillars of its policy, at least it claimed .

AKP’s first successes

In the years that followed, the AKP managed to achieve a sustained economic rise. By 2012, GDP had more than tripled. The AKP not only satisfied its voters but won the support of Social Democrats, intellectuals and Kurds. He created his own middle class and later his own upper class, which he continues to support to this day.

In the second half of the AKP’s stay in power, however, almost nothing remained of the initial promises to reform, strengthen democracy and modernize the country. At the Gezi Park protests in the early summer of 2013, he put on a very tough face.

After the coup attempt on July 15, 2016, Erdogan and his AKP are only interested in maintaining power. Laws are changing, Erdogan’s powers are growing and parliament is playing a less and less important role.

For Christian Brakel, head of the Heinrich Bell political foundation in Turkey, the AKP has changed radically since it was founded. What started 20 years ago as a broad pluralistic conservative movement has turned into an Erdogan worship club, he tells DW.

What is going to happen?

According to the latest opinion polls, the AKP currently gathers between 30 and 32% in the vote intention. However, Erdogan’s approval ratings are much higher than his party’s.

But there is also something new in Turkey. For the first time, six very different opposition parties have formed an alliance against the AKP. The Kurds and the Socialists have formed another alliance.

Now the question is whether after 20 years the presidency and parliamentary majority will remain in the hands of the AKP in the next elections or not. If the opposition wins a majority in parliament but Erdogan remains in power as president, Turkey expert Christian Brakel believes there will be unstable governments.

On the other hand, if the opposition were to appoint the President, they could quickly score successes on key issues such as immigration and the economy, but that is not easy. According to Christian Brakel, the risk of the broad opposition front collapsing is high, and then the AKP could return to the next municipal elections in 2024.

​​​​​​DW – Elmas Topsou/ Maria Rigoutsou

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