UN: At 8 billion the world population – The two most populous countries

The world’s population, which will number 8 billion people in mid-November, will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace, according to the United Nations, which highlights the significant demographic diversity among certain regions of the planet.

– Slow down –

The UN Department of Demography and World Population estimates that humanity will reach 8 billion people on November 15, more than three times the number of 2.5 billion in 1950.

But the “key message” is that “the rate of world population growth has fallen sharply since its peak in the 1960s,” Rachel Snow, of the United Nations Population Fund, told AFP.

This growth has thus fallen from 2.1% between 1962 and 1965 to below 1% in 2020 and may decline further to around 0.5% in 2050.

– About 9 billion, then 10?-

Given the number of people of reproductive age and the increase in life expectancy, the population will nevertheless continue to grow, with an estimated 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, before the “peak” to 10.4 billion in the 2080s and stagnation by the end of the century, according to UN projections.

Not all items show the same picture. Research by the American institute IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) published in 2020 predicts a peak much earlier, in 2064, without the number reaching 10 billion (9.7 billion), and then a decline to 8 .8 billion by 2100.

“We are lower (than the UN) because we have a very different fertility model,” which specifically predicts 1.66 children per woman in 2100, Stein Emil Volset, one of the main authors of the study, who estimates that the increase will stop “between 9 and 10 billion”.

– Reduced fertility –

In 2021, the average fertility rate was 2.3 children per woman, up from about 5 in 1950, according to the UN, which predicts 2.1 in 2050.

“Since then, the majority of the world’s inhabitants live in a country where the birth rate is below the population replacement rate,” commented Rachel Snow.

– Getting older and older –

An important factor in population growth is the average life expectancy increasing: 72.8 years in 2019, nine years more than in 1990. And the UN predicts it will reach 77.2 years in 2050.

The result, combined with the declining birth rate: the percentage of over 65s is expected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050.

An aging that has implications for the labor market, pension systems, care for the elderly…

So “more and more countries are asking us to help them figure out how they can grow their population,” said Rachel Snow.

– Unprecedented diversity –

The global numbers mask a huge demographic diversity.

Thus, more than half of population growth by 2050 will come from just 8 countries, according to the UN: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.

Median age also shows such diversity, with 41.7 years in Europe compared to 17.6 years in sub-Saharan Africa. “In the past, countries were close in age, mostly young: in the future, countries will be close in age, mostly old,” but at this very moment in history, “the world is very divided,” emphasizes Rachel Snow.

Differences that can play a role in geopolitical relations, some experts note.

– India will overtake China –

Another sign of the shift in the trend is that the two most populous countries, China and India, will swap places on the podium from 2023, according to the UN.

China’s population of 1.42 billion in 2022 will begin to decline to 1.3 billion in 2050. And only 800 million by the end of the century.

India’s population of 1.41 billion in 2022, despite falling below replacement rate, will continue to grow, and is expected to reach 1.66 billion in 2050.

In 2050, India is expected to be the most populous country, ahead of China. In third place, as always the USA but together with Nigeria, with 375 million inhabitants.

RES-EMP

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