The Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman, was elected to the United States Senate this Tuesday (8), according to projections from the American press, in one of the tightest disputes of these midterms, the midterm elections that redefine control of the legislature.
Fetterman’s victory, projected by NBC and CNN at dawn on Wednesday (9), paves the way for the Democratic Party to maintain control of the Senate, which has been considered crucial for President Joe Biden to have some governability from the next year, as projections point to losing the majority of the Chamber.
That’s why the race in Pennsylvania was seen as one of the most important this year, and it mobilized the biggest names in American politics, such as Biden, Barack Obama and Donald Trump.
The dispute was marred by the stroke Fetterman, 53, suffered in May, which took him off the front lines of the campaign and compromised his ability to express himself. The opposition focused on the thesis that the Democrat does not have the health conditions to occupy the position.
Midterms are considered a barometer of government, and President Joe Biden, who has low approval ratings, is at the stake. At stake are 35 of the 100 senators, who serve six-year terms. Today the Senate is divided evenly, with 50 seats for Republicans and 50 for Democrats — under local rules, the vice president commands the Senate, so Kamala Harris has the power to break the tie in favor of the president’s party.
In addition, there are elections for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, in which deputies serve two-year terms. To get a majority, you need to achieve 218 of these chairs. Polls indicate that Biden is likely to lose command of the House.
Before being elected Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania in 2018, Fetterman was mayor of Braddock, a Pittsburgh district with less than 2,000 inhabitants, from 2006 to 2019. Married to Brazilian Gisele Barreto Fetterman, he has on his agenda issues such as defending the liberalizing abortion, legalizing marijuana, defending public health and immigrant rights.
At 53, the Democrat is a curious figure, out of step with the pattern of senators you’ll find on Capitol Hill. Standing over two meters tall, with a prominent goatee and many tattoos, he often participates in public agendas wearing a sweatshirt and sometimes shorts.
He beat Republican Mehmet Oz, a doctor and TV celebrity backed by former President Donald Trump. It was a tight contest. Fetterman even opened 12 points of difference in the polls, but Oz regained the disadvantage amid the public’s frustration with the country’s economy, and ended up with a vote very close to the Democrat’s.
To keep the Senate, some disputes are considered crucial in these midterms. Aside from Pennsylvania, all eyes are on Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
Bad news for Democrats was Republican JD Vance’s victory for the Senate in Ohio, where there was also some hope for Biden’s party. The polls showed him through the race tied with Democrat Tim Ryan, but the Republican, bestselling author of investment and backed by Trump, has skyrocketed in recent days and won the race.
On the other hand, Republicans lost in New Hampshire and Colorado, some states where there was some chance for Donald Trump’s party.
The two big motivators of the vote this year were abortion, which favors Democratic candidates, and the country’s economy, which pulls votes for Republicans. An exit poll of voters on Tuesday by CNN found that a third of respondents said inflation was the main reason they voted this year. Inflation is at 8.2% in the 12-month period, slightly lower than the peak of 9.1% in June, but still at high levels. The survey also shows that three-quarters of voters believe that the country’s economy is being mismanaged.
Already for 27% of respondents in the CNN poll, abortion was the main reason to go to the polls in the country where voting is not mandatory. The Supreme Court’s ruling in June that termination of pregnancy is not a right guaranteed by the Constitution led to a wave of female voters registering to vote, which boosted Democratic candidates.
If he loses the House, but retains the Senate, Biden is in the same situation as Trump from 2018, which is useful to avoid a loss of office in a possible serious political crisis – as happened with Trump, who had two impeachments approved in the Chamber, but barred from the Senate.
Losing any of the houses will already be a blow to Biden, who will see his schedule come to a standstill. If he didn’t have a majority at the beginning of the government, the president would not have approved projects that were expensive for his administration, such as the Inflation Reduction Law, which contained the largest package of incentives to mitigate climate change in the country’s history. Now, he can forget about tightening gun controls or passing federal legislation legalizing abortion.
There is also a risk that Republicans will open commissions to investigate their government, similar to the one found in the January 6, 2021, attack on Capitol Hill. Among the possible investigations would be the process of withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan, suspicious business of Hunter, the president’s son, or an alleged political use of the Department of Justice in cases against Trump.
Losing control of the legislature mid-term is common. Since Jimmy Carter (1981-1989), only George W. Bush (2001-2009) has managed to maintain a majority of Congress in the midterms, in 2002, post-9/11 — a majority he lost in another election in 2006.
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