EU leaders agreed on Thursday (December 16th) to co-ordinate with their NATO allies on sanctions against Russia in the event of further military aggression against Ukraine. It remains to be seen what level of escalation will trigger the EU response and what kind it will be.
“Our concerns about the development of Russian military activity on Ukraine’s eastern border are well known and our position is very clear,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after the talks.
“Let there be no doubt,” she said. “If Russia moves against Ukraine, the EU will be able to take sanctions that could cost Russia dearly. “We have been working on it,” he added.
According to the final conclusions of the summit, EU leaders threatened Russia with “huge consequences”, “serious costs” and internationally coordinated sanctions in the event of a further military attack on Ukraine.
The EU is consulting with the US “on a weekly basis” in teleconferences to coordinate future sanctions and will work very closely with NATO, according to European Union sources.
“The European Council reiterates its full support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” EU leaders said.
Russia had violated Ukraine’s territorial integrity since 2014 by invading and annexing the Crimean peninsula.
“Any further aggression against Ukraine will have enormous consequences and serious costs in response, including restrictive measures coordinated with partners,” European leaders said in a statement at the summit.
Sanctions options
The general perception is that the EU’s diplomatic language has been strengthened, with “restrictive measures” opening the door “to a range of options”, an EU source said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the day before that while most EU leaders understood and supported Ukraine’s position in the conflict, he was disappointed that European powers had refused to take precautionary measures against Russia, threatening to respond only if action.
The summit declaration itself did not specify what measures could be taken, although EU officials and diplomats have in recent days cited sanctions against Russia’s financial and economic sectors as some of the options.
A European Parliament resolution this week called for the suspension of the SWIFT system, a messaging network used by 11,000 banks in 200 countries to make cross-border payments, in a future round of sanctions against Russia if it become necessary.
Some have called the option a “nuclear option” as it would be an unprecedented move, used only once in 2012 to disengage Iranian banks after being blacklisted by the West over its dispute over its nuclear deal. Iran.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s “selection document” on the sanctions has not yet been presented to EU leaders, an EU diplomat confirmed, adding that “everyone agreed, as it was not the right time. and a place to do that. “
Definition of aggression
Uncertainty over the language of the statement remains as the question arises as to whether the EU will be able to agree on a definition of what constitutes “any further aggression” by Russia.
The phrase was also unlikely to be defined above, according to statements by EU diplomats to EURACTIV, as then there would be no chance of a threat.
“You do not want to put precautionary measures on the table before something happens,” an EU diplomat told EURACTIV.
“Otherwise, what do you have left to take action? “What will happen if none of the Russian troops move, but some green people start to start riots in Donbass?”
However, some fear that this also leaves the door open to “slip” out of any commitments in the event of a hybrid scenario, fearing Ukraine and some eastern Member States.
EU diplomats have confirmed to EURACTIV that there is distrust in Germany of a possible withdrawal from the debate on the use of measures in such a situation.
“I still believe that if such a scenario happens, even Germany should be taken seriously,” said a Western European diplomat.
Where do France and Germany stand?
In their conclusions on Thursday night, EU leaders also reiterated their commitment to peace talks known as the “Normandy Quartet” led by France and Germany.
“The European Council encourages diplomatic efforts and supports the Normandy format for achieving full implementation of the Minsk agreements,” the leaders said.
However, Moscow has not taken part in any high-level meetings of the group in recent months.
The initiative has so far yielded no solution to the security situation in eastern Ukraine, with ceasefire violations and clashes continuing on a daily basis, according to the OSCE monitoring mission.
The French and German leaders have sought to revive talks within the so-called “Normandy Quartet”, which also includes Russia and aims to implement the Minsk II peace accords to end the war in eastern Ukraine.
Earlier on Wednesday (December 15th), on the sidelines of the Eastern Partnership summit in Brussels, German Chancellor Olaf Soltz and French President Emanuel Macron met individually with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelen as a group.
Marginal diplomacy, along with the language used in Thursday’s summit document, could not hide the contradictions that some Member States may have as to where the dialogue with Russia should take place.
Speaking with German Chancellor Olaf Soltz at a joint news conference after the summit, French President Emmanuel Macron said Ukraine needed to move forward in order to make progress on the Normandy bloc.
“We believe that proposals must be made by President Zelensky in order for progress to be made,” he said.
At the same time, Soltz received calls from some EU leaders to threaten Moscow with the termination of “Nord Stream 2”.
While Soltz stressed that this is a “private sector project” where only “detail issues” need to be resolved, Macron said the discussion is not “something new” and that the future of the pipeline is not linked to “current problems”. ».
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