In a sign of the foreign policy priorities of the next government, the president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) should not participate in the World Economic Forum, in Davos, in January.
The PT’s first international trip will be to Argentina, to meet with President Alberto Fernández and attend the CELAC Summit (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States).
The meeting is scheduled for January 24th, while the forum in Switzerland takes place shortly before, between the 16th and 20th. It would be possible to reconcile the dates, but the future Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), should be the main representative of the Brazil at the event with businessmen, economists and global leaders.
According to Lula’s interlocutors, the hammer has not yet been beaten, but the most likely thing is that he will not go to Davos. The perception of some people around the PT member is that he has already made his debut on the global stage during COP27, in Egypt, in November. So there would be no need to go to Davos.
The Economic Forum, however, is usually an opportunity for heads of government to present their economic policies to foreign investors. Thus, Lula’s presence could reinforce the message of commitment to fiscal stability that Haddad has been trying to transmit.
Lula participated in the forum in 2003, after his debut in the Presidency. There, she reassured investors, insecure with the then little-known left-wing leader, and propagated the commitment to reforms.
In January 2019, shortly after taking office, President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) also went to Davos, where he delivered a six-minute speech that was met with little enthusiasm.
Itamaraty’s priority will be to revive regional integration bodies in Latin America, such as Celac and Unasur, and to reconnect with neighbors, especially Argentina. Brazil abandoned CELAC during the administration of former Chancellor Ernesto Araújo and will now return to the organization, which should become one of the main forums for Brazilian foreign policy, alongside the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO).
In a press conference this Wednesday (14), the future chancellor Mauro Vieira, 71, announced that Lula will also go to the US and China at the beginning of the year. The two trips —and the order in which they will be made— will be important to signal Brazil’s position regarding Cold War 2.0 between Washington and Beijing.
The US government would like Lula to go to the White House to meet with President Joe Biden as soon as possible. On a visit to Brazil, on December 5, the US National Security adviser, Jake Sullivan, invited the PT member to meet with the democrat in Washington.
Throughout the electoral process, the USA gave several signs of support to the Brazilian electoral system and preached respect for the result of the election. The US government was prepared to send Sullivan to Brazil shortly after the second round if there was political instability due to disputes with the vote.
In a context of expanding Chinese influence in Latin America, the US wants to strengthen ties with Brazil and is betting on partnerships to mitigate the climate crisis, fight food insecurity and military cooperation. “The Americans sent [para a reunião com Lula] representatives of the entire hierarchical chain that deals with Latin America, which shows the degree of importance they are giving to Brazil”, says Hussein Kalout, researcher at Harvard University and former secretary of Strategic Affairs.
On the American side, in addition to Sullivan, the meeting was attended by Juan González, senior director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security Council, and Ricardo Zúniga, Deputy Secretary for the Western Hemisphere at the Department of State. For the transitional government, in addition to Lula, there were former Chancellor Celso Amorim, Haddad and Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-BA). “China has become a major challenge to US international hegemony, but the Americans are still irreplaceable for Brazil — they are the country’s largest foreign investor and second largest trading partner,” says Kalout.
There is a perception that Amorim, Lula’s future international adviser, and Vieira, nominated for chancellor, are less sympathetic to rapprochement with the Americans. The Chinese are also moving. Even before the second round, the charge d’affaires at the Chinese embassy, Jin Hongjun, contacted Amorim and advanced an invitation to the president-elect for a state visit to Beijing.
“There is a consensus around Lula that it is better to have a multipolar world than a unipolar one, led only by the USA; that is why the attempt to remain equidistant from China and the USA and the resistance to criticize Russia”, says Matias Spektor, professor from FGV’s School of International Relations and visiting professor at Princeton University. But economic dependence on Beijing, the country’s biggest importer of commodities, worries the elected government. “It is difficult to reduce this dependency”, completes Spektor.
He points out that other buyers of Brazilian commodities, such as the US and the European Union (EU), are implementing laws to ban the purchase of products from supply chains that do not combat deforestation, which leaves Brazil very exposed. “Ironically, US and EU environmental policy pushes Brazil closer to China”, says the professor.
The Brazilian military, on the other hand, has strong ties with the Americans. During the Bolsonaro government, the partnership with the US was deepened, and Brazil gained the status of a priority extra-NATO ally.
“From the point of view of the American government, it is important to limit the Chinese military expansion in the continent”, says the professor. Argentina has already ceded space in Patagonia to a Chinese space base, which has also strengthened military connections with Colombia, Venezuela and Central American countries such as Cuba.
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