Putin’s First Ukraine Ceasefire Begins

The first ceasefire by Russian forces since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine on February 24 last year began at 12:00 Moscow time (11:00 in Kiev, 6:00 in Brasilia) this Friday (6) under strong criticism.

In both Kiev and the West, Russia’s announcement to save 36 hours for the Orthodox Church’s Christmas celebration, celebrated by the ancient Julian calendar on Saturday (7), is a piece of propaganda – or, worse, military diversion.

The truce had been proposed by one of Putin’s most influential allies, Russia’s church patriarch Cyril. Kiev follows an Orthodox denomination of its own, born out of a schism tempered by the dispute between the two countries in 2019.

More than two hours after the measurement, however, the cannons seemed to have indeed silenced along the battle fronts. There were reports of occasional firefights in Donetsk (the capital of the homonymous province partially controlled by pro-Russian separatists since 2014) and Bakhmut (the focus of fighting in the same region).

Predictably, the Russian Ministry of Defense accused Ukraine of carrying out the attacks in violation of the truce that Kiev did not adhere to.

So far, however, there have been no air strikes or large artillery barrages that have marked the current stage of the Russian campaign. Warning sirens, however, began to sound across Ukraine when the truce reached three o’clock.

After losing ground in the northeast and south of the country, withdrawing forces in the face of Ukrainian advances, Moscow has reinforced a line that, by all indications, is the border it would like to see absorbed into its territory.

From a legal Russian point of view, illegal internationally, this is already posed by the formal annexation after farcical referendums last September of four Ukrainian regions. On Thursday (5), Putin told his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Kiev needs to accept this “new territorial reality” and negotiate peace.

The Russian had already annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014, in retaliation for the overthrow of a friendly government in Kiev, and fomented civil war in the Donbass (Russian-speaking east made up of Donetsk and Lugansk). In 2022, he attacked under the pretext of preventing Ukraine from entering Western structures such as NATO (military alliance led by Washington).

In addition to this entrenchment, the Kremlin has deliberately attacked its neighbor’s energy structure, which so far has not occurred in the truce.

President Volodymir Zelensky and his allies, like the American Joe Biden, saw hypocrisy and casuistry in the Russian pause, which did not cease its attacks at the turn of the year. The Ukrainian claims that Putin aims to reallocate equipment and troops, trying to hold Kiev’s actions in Donetsk.

It could be, or it could simply be a publicity stunt to paint Ukrainians as aggressors, which won’t fly in the West. But the next few hours, until midnight on Saturday, will tell what will happen.

If there is any diversion, it is being flagged up north, in the Putin-friendly dictatorship of Belarus. This Friday, another train loaded with armored vehicles and soldiers arrived from Russia at a base near the border with Ukraine.

Dictator Aleksandr Lukachenko himself was present at the site, where he heard from the Russian commander that the forces “are ready for their tasks”. What would they be? Strictly speaking, since last month, the allies have set up a joint force to act along the border, although Minsk denies that it will participate in the war.

So far, the Belarusians have provided their territory for moving forces, deploying missiles, and operating planes and helicopters by the Russians. The failed Russian advance against Kiev at the beginning of the war, which seemed to decide the conflict in a few days, came out of there.

This joint force is now expected to do joint exercises, exactly what happened in early 2022, when in fact the Russians were preparing their attack under the thin cover of maneuvers with their neighbor and around the entire Ukrainian border.

Zelensky and his generals have already said they fear a repeat of the scenario, but military analysts are generally skeptical, considering the degree of Russian material exhaustion – there are reports of shortages of ammunition at some points on the front. From a human point of view, the mobilization of 320,000 reservists has yet to take the form of a capable, if poorly equipped, combat corps.