London, Thanasis Gavos
The Omicron variant of the coronavirus causes milder disease than Delta in the majority of cases, a study by the UK Health and Safety Service that will be published before Christmas is expected, Politico reveals.
The study is the first to be based on even initial factual data from the United Kingdom.
The key finding, always according to Politico, is that most Omicron patients will get sick less seriously than Delta carriers, in part because of vaccinations and previous infections, but also because the new variant may be inherently milder.
At the same time, however, the study is expected to warn that the milder nature of Omicron does not mean avoiding a large number of treatments. Researchers are expected to note that for those who become seriously ill, there is still a high risk of hospitalization and death.
Once the Omicron contagion is confirmed to be very high, the number of infections will be so large that it also makes possible a large increase in hospitalizations.
Politico also states that the study confirms the conclusion that while the two doses of the vaccine are not sufficient for strong protection against Omicron, the booster dose significantly reduces both the risk of symptomatic infection and hospitalization.
At the same time, some scientists in Britain estimate that we are already seeing the first signs that the peak of Omicron eruption in the country is over.
Infectious disease professor Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia said it seemed as if infection levels had stabilized, perhaps even begun to decline, citing data both nationally and from London, the focus of Omicron outbreaks. . In the capital, the total cases recorded fell on a 24-hour basis for the first time on Tuesday.
Professor Hunter said that based on the prognostic models, the country should have registered 200,000 cases of coronavirus yesterday and not “only” 91,000. While estimating that further strict measures might be avoided, he stressed that it would take a few more days for his theory to be confirmed.
Professor James Naismith comments on an analysis by the Telegraph which shows that with the exception of London, the incidence rate for all cases in the UK is currently very low, at 1.95%. It is the lowest percentage from 1.8% in July, while last year in December it was at 12%.
The British epidemiologist mentions as possible explanations the large vaccination coverage of the population, now with the third dose, the immunity that the previous infections have built and the fact that most of the patients this time are younger compared to the previous waves of the pandemic.
The Telegraph, which analyzes epidemiological data, concludes that the highest rates of cases and hospitalizations are found in areas with comparatively lower vaccination coverage, such as mainly London.
“In areas where more than 30% of the population has not been vaccinated, the average incidence rate is 921 per 100,000 inhabitants, while where less than 10% of the population is unvaccinated the proportion drops to 603 cases per 100,000 inhabitants Says Sarah Napton, science editor at the Telegraph, wondering if we are facing an “epidemic of the unvaccinated.”
Finally, Carl Henegang, a professor of medical data at the University of Oxford, who has the reputation of being the most detailed pandemic observer in the United Kingdom, also told the Telegraph that based on daily sample analysis, the peak of Omicron cases in England was December 15.
Despite the above optimistic assessments, the chief physician of England, Professor Chris Whitey, and the chief scientific adviser to the government, Sir Patrick Valance, told the British Parliament on Tuesday night that the huge number of Omicron infections could lead to NHS Health, once again in favor of taking additional measures.
Prime Minister Johnson announced yesterday that no action would be taken before Christmas Day, but did not rule out taking it before New Year.
The confirmed cases of Omicron in the country now number 60,501. The suspected cases are 118,034. The number of hospitalizations increased by only five, to 129, while the victims of the variant remain 14.
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