The German government chose a new defense minister on Tuesday (17) and said its first decision will be on the supply of war tanks manufactured in the country to Ukraine, which has faced the invasion of Russia for almost 11 months.
Social Democrat Boris Pistorius, a local politician from Lower Saxony known for being a hardliner on security and immigration issues, replaced the much-maligned Christine Lambrecht, who resigned on Monday.
“There are important decisions to be taken in the short term, in particular the urgent question of how we are going to continue to support Ukraine in its self-defence,” said German Minister Robert Habeck (Economics). “Germany bears the responsibility here and has vital tasks to fulfill.”
Lambrecht left a substantial laundry list in the area of ​​defense: the failure to apply in a coordinated way the €100 billion approved by the government of Prime Minister Olaf Scholz for the sector after the beginning of the war, the ineffectiveness of the Armed Forces and, more urgently, the tank issue.
The Germans manufacture the Leopard-2, the most widely used model in Europe — 12 countries on the continent operate around 2,500 units. With the fear of nations of seeing their defense compromised by sending too many tanks to Kiev, the most logical solution is for everyone to provide a number compatible with their fleet.
President Volodymyr Zelensky asked for 300 tanks to counter Russian offensives in the east of the country, which had some successes after a series of defeats. An analysis published by the IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies), in London, estimates that 100 armored vehicles of this type would already have an impact on the defensive line.
Berlin needs to give the OK for other countries to send war material purchased from German companies to third parties. That looks like the easy part, for all the hesitation of the Scholz government. The prime minister will be asked about this this Tuesday in Davos (Switzerland), where he is participating in the World Economic Forum.
The direct contribution of the Germans is unknown. Natural candidates to supply more armor are NATO countries, the Western military club, or their allies, with larger fleets of Leopard-2s and closer to the conflict area.
They are NATO member Finland (200 tanks, 100 in stock), and the members of the Poland group (347) and Germany (376, 55 in stocks according to the IISS, 22 according to the manufacturer Rheinmettal). But the manufacturer itself said that tanks in reserve in Germany would need a review and could only be delivered in early 2024, increasing pressure for the use of active armored vehicles.
This is controversial not only because of the reduction in defense capacity, but also because it suggests a more direct involvement in the war than Berlin would like. Since the beginning of the conflict, the West has been raising the bar of deliveries little by little, to protests from Moscow, which whenever it can draws the risk card of a nuclear conflict with NATO.
Under pressure from the Americans, who delivered more than half of the $40 billion sent in weapons and military aid in 2022 to Kiev, that has changed – although there are taboos, such as the supply of fighter planes. Washington, Berlin and Paris promise to deliver light armored vehicles and London announced the donation of a squadron of 14 Challenger-2 heavy tanks.
This British move served to add pressure on Berlin, as on other occasions. On Friday (20), everything should be decided at a NATO meeting at the main American base in Germany, Ramstein. Depending on the package announced, it will be possible to estimate the impact of the measure on the war.
The Russians have so far only maintained the rhetoric that the shipments will not change the course of the botched military operation in the neighboring country. The Kremlin spokesman claimed that the Challenger-2 will “burn in the fields” of Ukraine, but that’s it.
The country of Vladimir Putin started this Tuesday the program to increase its Armed Forces – which had 900,000 members at the beginning of 2022, 10% more this year and now reach 1.5 million military personnel by 2026.
According to the Ministry of Defense, the priority will be the use of professional soldiers, under contract, and not conscripts. It is a way of reducing the domestic unpopularity of measures such as the mobilization of 320,000 reservists at the end of last year, which seems to be bearing some fruit on the battlefront.
The disclosed plan advocates a structural reorganization, with the installation of another army corps, repositioning of divisions and the creation of two services to integrate different branches of the Forces. The cost of the initiative was not disclosed.
The lack of manpower, in addition to tactical errors and logistical problems, cost the victory that Moscow seemed to predict in a few weeks for the war. The chronic shortage of soldiers has led to the employment of mercenaries at points on the front, as in the current campaign in Donetsk (east). Mobilization, analysts estimate, could mitigate this semester’s problems — but war seems increasingly a perennial element of the European political landscape.
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