Opinion – Ross Douthat: Will there be a comeback for Joe Biden?

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Something unusual happened to Joe Biden last week. A reputable poll by The Economist and YouGov gave him a positive support rating, with 50% of registered voters approving and 47% disapproving.

Perhaps the poll was a departure from the norm: The president’s approval ratings have been rising since hitting bottom, but his approval rating still doesn’t reach 45 percent.

Perhaps any improvement will be undone with the release of new revelations of misplaced classified documents from his vice presidential days — though it would be hard to overcome the comic factor of the fact that some of the papers had been in the garage with the politician’s Corvette.

But now, with Republicans in Congress gearing up for a year of bitter infighting and risky fiscal maneuvers, it’s worth reflecting on what it would take for Biden to chart a true comeback — a return to real popularity.

Before the midterms, I tried to identify three original sins of the Biden administration: three courses in a row that were freely chosen, proved unnecessary, and contributed to the president’s low approval numbers. They were: the White House’s initial decisions to limit oil production and to revoke some of Trump’s immigration policies (which were followed by the large increase in gas prices and the border crisis); the overspending of the bailout plan, which contributed to high inflation; and the absence of any real moderation on cultural issues, as Biden’s original image of a moderate Catholic Democrat had suggested would happen.

One issue I did not include on that list was the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. I did not do so because it was not an issue that greatly influenced the campaign for the midterms and because I felt that the withdrawal itself was a necessary and courageous decision, notwithstanding its disastrous execution. But if we look at the arc of the president’s approval ratings, the fall of Kabul seems to have marked an important turning point, the moment that sowed the first serious doubts about the administration’s competence.

So, visualizing a Biden turnaround requires imagining that these problems have been overcome or reversed or that their importance and visibility have diminished.

In the area of ​​economics, such a scenario would work like this: House under Republican control eliminates any possibility of further inflationary spending, inflation continues to fall without rising unemployment, China’s reopening helps to normalize the global economy, the energy weapon of Putin proves to be a one-off coup, not one that has a sustained effect, and we’ve made it through this weird post-pandemic period without suffering an actual recession.

In the area of ​​foreign policy, the best-case scenario is likely to involve further advances by the Ukrainians and then some kind of stable ceasefire, which would likely allow Biden to be hailed as responsible for curbing Russian aggression and also for successfully managing the risks of a Third World War.

It may be that the bloody stalemate will prolong instead, but the White House’s handling of the Ukraine War is probably its best policy yet. If a year from now it still appears to be successful, the memory of Kabul’s collapse will likely be completely erased.

With regard to immigration and the border crisis, it is clear that the management thinks that, with the adoption of new asylum restrictions, it is describing a shift to the right. But the political effectiveness of the measure will depend on whether it actually has results.

On other cultural issues, it seems unlikely that the Democrat will execute any notable turnaround. But the White House can hope that a divided government will ease voters’ anxieties about too much “modernity” without the administration needing to make any enemies on its left.

The role of Republican lawmakers is often critical to the recovery scenario. The Biden administration can recall the political comebacks described by Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, clearly facilitated by Republican irresponsibility. Judging by what has happened so far with Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House, history may be starting to repeat itself.

But with one important difference: Clinton and Obama were politicians of unusual talent and in the prime of their political lives, while Biden is something else — a sympathetic political insider, but one who is evidently too old for his job.

From time to time this reality can be unexpectedly advantageous. In cases like the disclosures about classified documents or the Hunter Biden imbroglios, the idea of ​​the president doing something dubious accidentally or thoughtlessly, not with intentional bad faith, is more plausible than would have been the case in previous presidencies.

But mostly Biden’s age creates difficulties that the Clinton and Obama administrations didn’t have to worry about. When events turn against his government, as was the case in 2021 and could certainly happen again in 2023 if the scenarios presented above do not materialize, he may seem overwhelmed, ill prepared to lead or to change the country. And even when things go well — even in a clear backstory scenario — the shadow of Biden’s diminished capabilities could still hurt his support base.

That is, if Republicans can find a rival candidate who forms a clear contrast to the current president. If, instead, they go back to a certain former president whom the Democrat once defeated — well, that is the scenario that most points to a Biden comeback and the clearest path to another term for him.

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