The Odebrecht case fuels debate on the direction of democracy in Guatemala

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If a few years ago Guatemala almost became an example of combating corruption, the country is now among the nations that attack the independence of the judiciary in order to co-opt it in favor of the shift government.

The issue gained traction after a recent spat between the country and Colombia that threatened to sever diplomatic ties between the Latin American nations. In a way, even Brazil enters the story.

In a new chapter of persecution of those who acted in anti-corruption cases, the Guatemalan Special Prosecutor’s Office announced that it will investigate Iván Velásquez Gómez, one of the most renowned Colombian jurists and current Minister of Defense in Gustavo Petro’s country. From 2013 to 2019, he headed Cicig, the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala, a body structured in partnership with the UN and responsible for shedding light on the biggest corruption scandals in the country of 18 million people.

The Guatemalan court alleges that Velásquez irregularly supported whistle-blowing agreements reached with three Brazilian executives in a case that revealed bribes of almost US$ 18 million by construction company Odebrecht to ministers in the country in exchange for bids for public works.

The Colombian denies any wrongdoing. The USA —which, with the exception of the Donald Trump government, were major sponsors of Cicig— and the UN, in the figure of Secretary General António Guterres, came to its defense. “I fear that a criminal prosecution is being put in place,” said the Portuguese.

Petro, of course, also expressed support for his colleague. More than his minister, Velásquez is a longtime ally and the figure most likely to be Colombia’s next attorney general — which arouses the ire of Uribismo, a political sector on the right led by former Colombian president Álvaro Uribe.

Velásquez, after all, was at the forefront of investigations by the Supreme Court of Colombia that, in the 2000s, uncovered the case known as parapolitics, which exposed the articulation of several politicians, mostly Uribe’s support base, with illegal armed groups.

Jairo Libreros, a professor at the Universidad Externado de Colombia, says that the announcement of the current investigation is further evidence of a rebound effect from the economic and political elites embodied in the government of President Alejandro Giammattei. “Sooner or later, there would be a reckoning for Cicig trying to enforce the rule of law with US and UN backing,” he says.

The lawyer and specialist in international politics says that the measure is also an intimidating message directed at the press and members of the Judiciary. “Something like ‘anyone who goes forward with investigations will be subjected to public scorn and imprisonment’.”

Known, among other aspects, for endemic corruption, the Central American country achieved successes during Cicig’s activities. In the best-known case, the commission exposed a network of corruption involving former president Otto Pérez Molina, sentenced to 16 years in prison.

During the administrations of Jimmy Morales (2016-2020) and, more specifically, of Giammattei, efforts were shelved and those responsible for investigations were persecuted. Year after year, the country has fallen in the ranking produced by the NGO Transparency International, which measures the perception of corruption in the public sector. In 2021, it was 150th on a list of 180 countries — Brazil was 96th.

The most current version of the list will be released soon, but at Sheet Manfredo Marroquín, director of Ação Cidadania, the Guatemalan branch of Transparency, says that the country has once again regressed.

“There is no oxygen for opposition to mafias in national politics,” he says. “Cicig reached an alliance of power, and these groups defined that they would control all the institutions so that no one would ever touch them again. There is no longer a division between Powers. What we have is a pact of corrupt people.”

Under Giammattei, a conservative politician who echoed Jair Bolsonaro (PL) with an anti-abortion agenda, Guatemala has regressed in indices that measure democratic indicators and has entered the orbit of autocracies, now standing up with tactics such as co-option of the Judiciary and curtailment of press.

The situation interrupts a scenario of democratic development in Central America since the 1980s and 1990s, when countries like Guatemala, Nicaragua and El Salvador left behind wars and dictatorships and began to build independent institutions.

In challenges in part similar to those of Guatemala, El Salvador is witnessing the autocratic populism of Nayib Bukele, who is surfing high approval to sustain a state of exception about to complete a year, and Nicaragua lives under Daniel Ortega, a militant for democracy who became a dictator.

“We are living through the exhaustion of the liberalization processes of the last decades of the 20th century”, says Álvaro Artiga, professor at the Universidad Centroamericana José Simeón Cañas, in El Salvador. “This also goes through the absence of a generational renewal in political offices and the presence of economic actors with illicit activities who use political forces to get what they want.”

As the country intensifies progress under the judiciary, Giammattei prepares for July elections. He will not run — re-election is prohibited — but wants his party, Vamos, to remain in power. Against the conservative weighs low popularity: poll conducted in October by the Gallup institute with 1,200 Guatemalans showed that only 24% approved of the current president.

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