Lula faces wear and tear to consolidate himself as leader of Latin America

In the first weeks of his third term, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has demonstrated that he accepts facing internal weariness in Brazil in order to consolidate himself as a leader in Latin America and strengthen himself in world geopolitics.

On his first official trip outside the country, when he was in Argentina, Lula announced the resumption of one of the main tools that helped him expand his influence in neighboring countries in his first two terms: the use of the BNDES (National Bank for Economic and Social Development ) to finance projects abroad.

The announcement served as ammunition for attacks by critics of Lula on social media. “Charity with someone else’s hat, with yours, with our hat. They want to transform the BNDES into what it was before the government [Jair] Bolsonaro, a money drain for smart guys,” Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) wrote on Twitter.

Other parliamentarians presented requests asking for explanations about these initiatives. There are also actions to try to unarchive projects in Congress that aim to prevent loans to foreign governments.

One of Lula’s interlocutors claims that this type of criticism was already foreseen. The PT’s team believes that the noise caused by this type of declaration is not different from the one faced by Lula the first times he was in the Planalto and even during the recent election campaign.

After Lula’s announcement, the BNDES itself informed that it has no demand or forecast to finance infrastructure services abroad. The bank pointed out that the current efforts are aimed at specifically leveraging the export of goods and products.

The bank said in a note that any change in this policy would necessarily go through an understanding with the TCU (Tribunal de Contas da União) and that the president of the court, Bruno Dantas, “has reinforced the role of monitoring public policies”.

Lula’s trip to Argentina and Uruguay exposed the PT’s strategy of prioritizing Mercosur and nodding to neighboring allies, even in unpopular cases, in order to establish himself as the protagonist.

Despite saying that one of his priorities is to strengthen democracy in Brazil, the Chief Executive made signals last week to the dictatorships of Cuba and Venezuela. The Lula government also officially started procedures for reopening the Brazilian embassy in Caracas, sending a diplomatic mission.

In addition, he praised the Argentine economy, governed by his ally Alberto Fernández, although the country ended 2022 with inflation close to 95%. He also announced the beginning of studies for the creation of a common currency, a measure that was not mentioned in the elections, due to fear of the political risk it could have.

Despite the affection for Cuba and Venezuela, Lula’s allies consider that the president has recently criticized regimes that are close to his party. In an interview with TV Globo during the electoral campaign, for example, Lula made veiled criticisms of the communist parties of China in Cuba when dealing with political polarization.

“There is no polarization in the Chinese Communist Party, there was no polarization in the Communist Party of Cuba,” he said at the time. “Now when you have democracy, there is more than one disputing, the polarization is healthy, it is important, it is stimulating.”

There is still great expectation among the neighboring countries about a possible rise of Lula as leader of the region. One interlocutor points out that the official photo of the 7th edition of the CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean Countries) Summit, with Lula in the center and highlighted, shows this.

The strategy is similar to that adopted in his first eight years in office, when he was one of the enthusiasts for the creation of Celac and strengthened ties with neighboring countries, including authoritarian governments.

Allies still claim that Lula can take advantage of a different scenario of his first two terms, with governments that are weaker and dependent on Brazilians. When he first took office, Argentina, Venezuela and other neighbors faced difficulties, but nothing compared to the current moment.

According to Lula’s allies, the strategy is important for him to gain strength in the eyes of the world. The assessment is that, weighing in the balance, the consolidation of Brazil’s leadership in relation to neighboring countries compensates for the wear and tear of defending dictatorships and announcing measures that have been criticized by its opponents in recent years.

Members of the Planalto Palace also say that Lula’s posture is that of someone who respects the sovereignty of other countries; and that it behooves him to maintain relations with all, and not to interfere in the politics of each nation.

People close to the president say that the situation in the region helped the president to resume the same strategy adopted from 2003 to 2010. Historical PT allies returned to power recently after South America elected several presidents to the right.

In Argentina, after a period of supremacy by the group of Nestor and Cristina Kirchner, the liberal Maurício Macri ruled between 2015 and 2019. He tried to be re-elected, but the Peronist Alberto Fernández won the election with Cristina as vice-president. Shortly after the election victory, the president and vice president began to clash. Today, they dispute who has the closest relationship with Lula.

In Chile, Gabriel Boric, a former militant of the student movement with a left profile, was elected president. Venezuela is still governed by the dictator Nicolás Maduro, successor to Hugo Chávez. The country is one of the most controversial targets between Lula and Bolsonaro.

As president, Bolsonaro ordered Brazilian diplomats to leave the neighboring country and even recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as president, although he did not control the country. In the end, Maduro managed to remain in the Presidency, which further intensified the relationship between Brazil and Venezuela.

Even before taking office, Lula made a point of resuming diplomatic relations with the neighboring nation. The transitional government led by the PT asked Bolsonaro to revoke an ordinance that prevented high-ranking Venezuelan authorities from entering the country. The norm was revoked, but Maduro ended up not coming to Brazil.

On the trip to Argentina, Lula said that Bolsonaro did an “abominable thing” by recognizing Guaidó as president and defended the reestablishment of diplomatic relations.

“Brazil, especially Brazil, and the countries that make up Celac, have to treat Venezuela and Cuba with great affection and, in whatever we can help solve their problems, we will help”, he said.