Russia has decided to escalate the intensity of the War in Ukraine on the eve of the conflict completing one year, which will take place on the 24th, and a day after President Volodymir Zelenskiy will address the European Parliament to ask for more military aid.
This Friday (10), Moscow launched the biggest bombings against the main capital of Zaporizhia, a province that it illegally annexed but does not fully control, and fired a new wave of missiles and drones against the energy infrastructure of the Ukrainians.
Apparently, everything converges to give President Vladimir Putin something to say on the 21st, when he will deliver a speech to the Russian Federal Assembly, the Congress that brings together the country’s two legislative houses.
The risks grow in the same measure: also this Friday, Ukraine said that two Kalibr cruise missiles used in the wave of attacks, fired from a frigate in the Black Sea, crossed the airspace of two neighboring countries: Moldova and Romania, the latter a member of NATO (western military alliance) and home to a large contingent of American soldiers.
The Moldovans confirmed the information and summoned the Russian ambassador to explain himself. To the relief of those who fear an accident-based escalation, Romania said its defense systems had detected the launch but that the missiles had passed within 35km of its border.
Moldova is a small country sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania that has territory controlled by pro-Russian separatists protected by Kremlin troops since the end of the Soviet Union. More than one Russian official has said that one of Putin’s goals in the war would be to conquer the entire Ukrainian coast to link Donbass (the Russian-speaking east of the country) to that area, called Transdnistria.
On the field, the most striking action this Friday took place in Zaporijia, capital of the homonymous province. There, at least 17 anti-aircraft missiles adapted for land attack from the S-300 system hit targets, leaving the city in the dark. No casualties have yet been reported, but a member of the local government, Anatolii Kurtiev, said it was the heaviest attack in the entire war.
A Russian military analyst, speaking anonymously to Sheetnoted that there was also a similar attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, which was besieged by Kremlin troops in the early stages of the war — but they retreated in September in a surprise offensive from Kiev.
For him, this could signal both diversionism, as the Zelensky government says that Russia is preparing a major offensive focused further south and east, as well as an action actually planned to try to take the city.
Zaporizia is a more obvious target, given that it is in the northern portion of the province that the Russians have never occupied. In addition, as in recent weeks, more intense fighting takes place in the “meat grinder” of Bakhmut, a city that the Russians seem close to taking and that could pave the way for the conquest of half of the Donetsk region —completing virtual control over all of Donbass, as Moscow dominates neighboring Lugansk.
There have been missile and drone strikes at other points, such as the Ukrainian capital. They follow the Russian logic since October, of intense fire on the country’s civilian infrastructure, aimed at undermining popular support for the government. Winter in the Northern Hemisphere is in full swing: this Friday, Kiev registered 2 degrees Celsius.
Any more effective advance in the Donbass sense could be laid out by Putin in his speech as evidence of some success, despite the net fact that his invasion did not bring Kiev to its knees in the first few weeks, as even the United States believed.
The same military analyst is cautious, however, about any major revelations made by the president. He says Putin likes to stir up suspense, but unless he decides to be satisfied and end the war, he will have to accelerate his actions even further to make an impact.
At the same time, Moscow will have to contend with new American long-range weapons promised to the Ukrainians, though effective tanks are far and fighters only in the realm of speculation.
The next two weeks appear to be vital for the course of the war of attrition set out by the Kremlin. Human losses are great and the economy, which survives the draconian regime of Western sanctions, shows signs of stress: there was a large fiscal deficit in January due to the imposition of limits on the price paid for a barrel of Russian oil.
The problem in designing scenarios in this complex context is the impossibility of reading what Putin actually wants, even by analysts close to the Kremlin like the Russian who spoke with the report. There were few serious observers who believed he would go beyond the bluff to pressure the West to leave Ukraine a neutral area a year ago.
Thus, reminds the analyst, everything is possible until the 21st, which does not rule out a greater involvement of the co-opted allied dictatorship of Belarus in the war. Everything, he says, including nothing.
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