For fans of European integration, the first polls in the run-up to the presidential election do not bode well. Both the far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who is running for a third term, and the ethno-populist Eric Zemour, a new protagonist in French politics, appear to be threatening to oust incumbent President Emanuel Macron, who is vying for the presidency. Uncertainty is heightened by the attractive candidacy of “Republican” Valerie Pekres, who is also entrenched in the preference of conservative voters.
It is noteworthy that Le Pen no longer supports Frexit, France’s withdrawal from the EU, a programmatic position with which it had come down in the 2017 presidential elections. For years it has been trying to move towards more moderate political positions, aiming at electoral benefits. To this end, it did not hesitate to change even the name of its party: the “National Front” (Front National) now gives its place to the “National Alarm” (Rassemblement National). However, Lepen herself is increasingly seeking to collude with Eurosceptic prime ministers within the EU, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Poland’s Matthew Morawiecki. Its goal is a “Europe of Nations”, he argues, in which national governments will work together on a transnational basis, if and when they deem it necessary. Her polls give a percentage of around 16-18%.
Zemour “blurs” them for the EU
Zemour currently stands at 13-14% of the vote, who seems to be approaching the line of Eurosceptics, but still keeps his papers closed on EU issues. In any case, he argues that European law does not prevail. of national law. Pekres follows a different logic, declaring in principle pro-European and willing to strengthen the EU’s common policies, especially in the field of defense. In fact, Macron’s Undersecretary of State for European Affairs, Clemon Bonn, recently accused her of … copying the current president’s political agenda.
And yet, Macron remains a favorite
In 2017, the pro-European Macron had managed to be elected with the first attempt to the presidency of the French Republic. He managed to seal his success when his main opponent, the conservative François Fillon, was accused of scandalous, fictitious employment of his wife. But from the outset, Macron was confronted with multiple crises, such as the violent mobilizations of the “Yellow Vests”, the mass demonstrations against the insurance reform and the conviction of his collaborator for beating a protester. Despite his campaign promises to drastically change the political situation in the country, Macron did not shy away from criticizing the style and ethos of his government, but also the privileged treatment of the elites.
On the other hand, the French Left has no chance of success in the upcoming elections. The candidates of the party are limited to 5-10% in the polls, while they themselves reject any possibility of cooperation. Taking into account all these data, Macron remains the favorite, although so far he is supported by a percentage of voters that does not exceed 25%. A re-election from the first round seems rather unlikely. It is equally unlikely, however, that the French will go to the polls en masse to vote for Le Pen or Zemour in the second round. The predominance of a pro-European candidate, such as Macron or Pekres, seems more realistic.
Test the French presidency in the EU
At present, from 1 January, Emanuel Macron took over the rotating EU presidency for the first half of 2022. His priorities include the protection of the external borders and the reform of the legal framework for the Schengen area, the digitization of the economy. the debate on a minimum wage in the EU, the common European defense policy, and an economic New Deal for Africa. “The French presidency is a very ambitious plan for Emanuel Macron, who in the run-up to the presidential election should have tangible results by early April,” Sebastian Mayiar, director of the Z Institute, told the German News Agency (DPA). .
DW: Rachel Bosmeyer / Giannis Papadimitriou
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