Antonis Anzoletos

The answer to the question “what would a defeat for Erdogan mean” for Greek interests it is not so easy. The dilemma is formulated another way:

“Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu will Greece vote on May 14?”. The approach that “the revisionist policy of the neighbors is not going to change whatever the result” is quite superficial.

Erdogan has proven to be particularly unpredictable, but his two decades at the helm of the country make him more or less “known”. He has negotiated with six elected Greek prime ministers going through different phases in his strategy. The big turn came after the coup attempt in the summer of 2016.

The rhetoric of the current Turkish president ended up being particularly harsh before the deadly earthquakes in Antioch, while many times he “flirted” with the heated episode. Nevertheless, the leader of the Republican party does not seem like the best possible solution. He is believed to have reshaped his party, sidelining the hard-line Kemalists, but even that may not be enough.

It is a fact that during the periods when the Kemalist politicians were at the head of the neighboring country the relations with Greece they did not “take off”. On the contrary…

The “manifesto” of the six representatives of the united Turkish opposition does not have many references to foreign policy. However, no one should forget that Kilicdaroglu’s party pioneered the theory of gray zones. A look at the recent past shows that the Kemalist politician is not the safest choice for Greek interests.

During the periods of nationalist bidding with Erdogan, Kilicdaroglu had provoked the Turkish president to attack the Greek islands: “the islands are under occupation. Now that the economy is bad and people are poor they keep saying they will come overnight. What are they waiting for? Invitation; If they have the courage and strength, let them go.”

In 2017, he had argued that Greece “captured 18 islands in the Aegean” promising that if he wins the elections he will contest them, while last June he had threatened that the Turkish forces would “demilitarize” the Greek islands.

On the positive side, it should be taken into account, according to analysts, that he will attempt to make a pro-Western turn at least for the first long period of time that he will rule. The alliance of “six” has declared that it wishes to restore relations with the European Union and the USA. This will not be done in an environment of surrendering its aspirations, but following the existing strategy of emerging Turkey as a major regional power.

It will certainly be demanded to denounce the policy of equal distances between the West and Russia. Epimythio: Ankara’s foreign policy priorities will hardly change. The way, the means and the style that the new government will adopt is the question.