The government of Kazakhstan announced that it had killed dozens of protesters who attacked public buildings and took over the airport in Almati, the country’s main city, in a crackdown on the biggest protests ever seen in Central Asia’s main ex-Soviet republic.
The crisis seems, and only seems, given the information blackout in the country, more controlled this Thursday (6). Armored patrols were recorded in Almati and other locations, with occasional firefights. In the city’s central square, according to Reuters, there were about 300 people gathered, but without protest.
Also on Thursday, the first contingent of Russian paratroopers arrived in the country, the vanguard of a multinational force of the Kremlin-dominated OTSC (Collective Security Treaty Organization) alliance to support the Kazakh government.
The military support has not yet been defined, and the boarding of few soldiers and tanks was more symbolic, and must be accompanied by Belarusian and Armenian allies. But, as I told the leaf a political adviser close to the Kremlin, special forces and the Omon riot police are already on their way to the country, entering regions dominated by ethnic Russians (18% of the 19 million inhabitants).
The intervention, made at the request of President Kasim-Jomart Tokayev, had been made the day before, when the country’s situation deteriorated and he dissolved the government, taking a series of measures to try to assert his position – he replaced dictator Nursultan Nazarbaiev, who continued as “father of the nation” at 81 and apparently now lost powers, in 2019.
The reports are sparse and unreliable. There is an information blackout in the country, which pulled the plug on the internet on Wednesday (5), when acts that started located on Sunday (2) against fuel increase became a harbinger of popular revolt.
Thus, it was up to state TV to give the imprecise number of victims, which gained accuracy in the balance of the government’s side: according to it 13 policemen died, with 353 injured. There are no details, but the victims mentioned are from Almati, although there have been protests in several cities in the country, including the capital, Nursultan.
In the same official line, the Russian agencies Tass and Interfax said that the local Ministry of Health recorded 1,000 wounded. Of these, 400 were hospitalized and 62 had to go to ICUs in Almati.
Putin’s quick move to contain the crisis comes on the eve of the first of several meetings that will discuss the deployment of Russian troops along Ukraine’s border to push for a solution around the pro-Kremlin rebel territories that have dominated the east since 2014. of the European country.
The succession of factors makes the turmoil a full plate for conspiracy theorists. Basically, there are three possible scenarios, none of which can be verified in their origin, but which point to the same result: a probable political victory for the Russian president. Are they:
1. Legitimate Revolt. The protests began in a region where LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) is widely used as fuel for cars, such as in Brazilian taxis. The government released prices at the beginning of the year and the population revolted.
As happened in Brazil in 2013 with the price of the bus ticket, the demonstrations spread and took shape, with protests against the government and the request for “The old man to leave”, in reference to Nazarbaiev’s influence.
2. Western influence. The version already sold by Nursultan and Moscow, which expressed itself in this regard this morning, is that the acts were orchestrated by foreigners and that their actors are “terrorists”. It is the Kremlin’s primer to face the so-called “color revolutions” of the ex-Soviet space, which have always mixed popular desire for democracy and autonomy with the interests of external powers.
In this case, the idea is that the instability was orchestrated to try to weaken Putin on a flank where he was relatively comfortable, given that Kazakhstan is an ally, albeit balanced with concessions to China to the east and economic flirtations with the United States in its oil industry. The presumptive motive would be to take traction from the Russian in the unfolding crisis in Europe, where it has deployed more than 100,000 men close to Ukraine.
3. Kremlin influence. Even more Machiavellian is the hypothesis that the crisis was fomented, or at least ignored to the point of derailment, by Kremlin supporters in collusion with the Kazakh government. In this case, from Nursultan’s point of view, there would be an opportunity for Tokayev to consolidate his power and emerge from the former dictator’s shadow.
The fact that he dethroned Nazarbaiev from the mighty Security Council and changed heads of security and intelligence on Wednesday gives this realistic tinge. There will still be popular dissatisfaction, genuine from what has been seen, for him to deal with.
More importantly, Putin comes out as a fearless peacemaker in the “manu militari” just before the diplomatic clash with the West, which begins with a NATO (US-led military alliance) meeting on Friday and continues with three meetings over the course of next week, including two with both sides present, to discuss the Ukrainian issue.
As usual, the truth must lie somewhere in the middle of these three hypotheses. In practice, which is what matters, if the use of Russian alliance forces is relatively permanent, Putin will have resolved two crises in Central Asia in less than a year — in 2021, he intervened politically to save the allied government of Kyrgyzstan.
China, which has worked as Russia’s partner against the West and has operated together after the US exit from Afghanistan despite seeking to increase influence in the region in recent years, quietly applauded. The government in Beijing only hoped that the Kazakh “internal matter” would be resolved quickly.
With that, after having sent troops to maintain the ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan last year, if it succeeds, the Kremlin will now become a guarantor of stability in an important region for the world trade in gas and oil – whose flow has not been interrupted. with the crisis.
With this, Putin will be able to avoid the loss of strategic depth, that is, the ability to defend against enemies with allied or neutral neighbors, since he can no longer annex them as in imperial or Soviet times. That’s what drives his actions in Ukraine and Belarus, where he has the dictatorship in his hand after anti-government protests — the joint air patrols in the country, announced on Wednesday, are not casual as symbols.
Ultimately, if the crisis is brought under control, it will provide muscle and speech for the Russians in their toughest struggle over Ukraine, regardless of how this was achieved: direct action, reaction, or a combination of factors.
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