Turkey’s political rivals agree on two points: the May 14 election is pivotal and the outcome will be marginal. The polls show no favorites. In this case, every vote counts. This is why diaspora Turks play a key role in the strategies of both camps. Since 2014, Turks abroad with a Turkish passport have the right to vote in the elections held in their homeland. Here Germany has a key role. This country is traditionally the most important destination for Turkish immigration. At the same time, it is a political stronghold of President Erdogan and the ruling AKP party.

Of the approximately three million residents of Turkish origin in Germany, half – approximately 1.4 million – are Turkish citizens and thus have the right to vote in Turkey. In the elections so far, these people have voted disproportionately for Erdogan. In the 2017 referendum on the country’s Constitution, around 62% of Turks in Germany voted “YES”, while in Turkey the percentage rose to 51%. In the 2018 presidential election, 65% of German Turkish voters who participated in the electoral process voted for Erdogan, while in Anatolia the figure was only 53%. Erdogan’s above-average popularity among Germany’s Turks is due to several reasons and is the fruit of Ankara’s diaspora strategy aimed at political control over immigrants.

»A dense network of organizations controlled by Ankara, in which mosques are a central factor, is bringing results. The media is also important. A 2020 study proves that Turks in Germany mainly watch their home country TV channels. Consequently, the Erdogan-controlled media largely shapes the thinking of these people. Finally, there is an important psychological factor, even in the third generation of immigrants: Many Turks in Germany feel like “second-class citizens”, complain about discrimination and racism. For these people, Erdogan, with his anti-Western rhetoric and vision of a strong Turkey, is the hero who inspires national aspirations.

Elections are not publicly commented on

Like no other Turkish politician, Erdogan has figured out how to get Germany’s Turks on his side. In previous election campaigns, the AKP organized mass events in Germany. As of 2017, this has come to an end, as that year politicians from non-EU countries were banned from holding campaign rallies in Germany three months before the polls. The new regulation led Turkish parties to change strategy. The election campaign is now conducted in a tight circle, largely online. As a result, the average German does not directly experience the Turkish election campaign. This is one explanation for the relatively little media coverage of the whole issue. In the comments, everyone agrees: all newspapers without exception want to see the end of the Erdogan era. Official German politics helps keep the Turkish elections from dominating the front pages of German newspapers.

“There is an agreement between the parties that we will not comment publicly on the outcome of the election,” a ruling coalition MP in Berlin tells me. According to him, experience has shown that Erdogan uses critical statements against him from abroad for his own purposes. But even if they keep a low public profile for tactical reasons, the German government and the entire political class are of course watching what is happening in Turkey very closely. The widely held view among pundits is that the odds of an opposition victory have never been better. The tempered optimism – which is not expressed publicly – comes with thoughts about how Germany and Europe will act if the opposition wins.

According to information, Berlin and Paris are already coordinating for the next day. A confidential scenario envisages a gradual restoration of Turkey’s long-suffering relations with Germany and the EU. In a first, highly symbolic step, the new leadership is expected to release imprisoned former HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas and activist Osman Kavala from prison.. The West will respond to the steps to restore the rule of law by announcing visa facilitation. In a next step – always according to the optimistic scenario – the reforms in the Turkish Judiciary and the media may lead to the restart of the negotiations for the customs union. A victory for the opposition, according to estimates in Berlin, will create the basis for a substantial upgrading of relations. Erdogan has not yet been defeated, but in Germany high-level planning for a future without him is already underway.